Match Info

Liga Profesional - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda)

Referee: Mastrangelo H. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	AFA Play, ESPN Premium
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 4
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 4
South-america	ViX Latin America
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Usa	Fanatiz, FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes


	Independiente		Instituto Córdoba

	1	X	2
	2.65	2.75	3.00
	2.60	2.95	2.85
	2.43	3.00	3.10	Watch
	2.77	2.95	3.05
	2.44	3.06	3.17	Watch
	2.70	2.85	3.00
	2.63	2.85	3.22	Watch
	2.60	2.90	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.37)	2.91 ↓ (3.16)	3.04 ↓ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente
36.4%

Draw
32.5%

Instituto Córdoba
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

29.9%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

29.7%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Instituto Córdoba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Instituto Córdoba than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Independiente - Instituto Córdoba Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Instituto will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rey R. (G) 29. Godoy L. 13. Fedorco J. 2. Calderon F. 39. Martino R. 16. Perez Curci M. 23. Marcone I. (C) 8. Meza M. 7. Montiel S. 9. Morales I. 19. Abaldo M.	29. Ledesma M. (G) 22. Massaccesi A. 26. Mosevich L. 30. Galvan J. (C) 44. Cerato G. 55. Abregu G. 15. Gallardo M. 3. Sosa D. 21. Lazaro J. 17. Tissera M. 10. Luna A.
Substitutes
4. Arias S. 6. Avila C. 5. Banegas N. 1. Blazquez J. (G) 10. Cabral L. 20. Cruz F. 32. Martinez D. 14. Millan L. 24. Palais J. 30. Parmo T. 34. Tempone F. 36. Valdez S.	8. Acevedo J. 32. Bravo A. 2. De La Fuente H. 11. Fonseca M. 7. Guerra N. 23. Meli A. 13. Mendez J. 73. Olivera L. 19. Sanseviero L. 35. Sittaro Miranda E. O. (G) 9. Suarez F. 14. Viera W.
Coaches
Viera J.	Flores D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', Tissera M. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Lazaro J. ⚽, Tissera M. (A),
21', Mosevich L. 🟨,
22', 1 - 1, Meza M. ⚽, Montiel S. (A),
29', Marcone I. 🟨,
40', Meza M. 🟨,
40', Ledesma M. 🟨,
44', Meza M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Cerato G. ↓, De La Fuente H. ↑,
51', 1 - 2, De La Fuente H. ⚽,
62', Martino R. ↓, Banegas N. ↑,
62', Abaldo M. ↓, Millan L. ↑,
65', 1 - 3, Gallardo M. ⚽,
66', Tissera M. ↓, Suarez F. ↑,
73', Perez Curci M. ↓, Tempone F. ↑,
80', 1 - 4, Luna A. ⚽, Lazaro J. (A),
81', Lazaro J. ↓, Sanseviero L. ↑,
81', Abregu G. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
87', Gallardo M. ↓, Acevedo J. ↑,
87', Morales I. ↓, Avila C. ↑,
88', Godoy L. ↓, Arias S. ↑,
90+2', Arias S. 🟨,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Playoffs - 1/8 - finals) and 1st in the Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Playoffs - 1/8 - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Independiente holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Independiente: De Irastorza J. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Instituto: Alarcon F. R. (Yellow Cards) Albarracin L. (Muscle Injury) Erquiaga I. (Thigh Injury) Moyano F. (Muscle Injury) Rafaelli L. (Hamstring Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Independiente: Avila C. (Injury).

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Independiente has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:8 (averaging 1.3:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Independiente against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 6:2 goals (averaging 1.5:0.5 per game).

Outrights of Argentinian Liga Profesional for now

Instituto: 7.04% Independiente: 3.52%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.09.26	Unión Santa Fe - Independiente	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Independiente - San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Central Córdoba - Independiente	0:1 ✺
30.08.26	Independiente - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	0:3 ✺
22.08.26	Independiente - Independiente Rivadavia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTWLT
- Instituto Córdoba
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.09.26	Instituto Córdoba - Talleres de Córdoba	3:1 ✺
14.09.26	Instituto Córdoba - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	2:1 ✺
07.09.26	Unión Santa Fe - Instituto Córdoba	3:2 ✺
31.08.26	Instituto Córdoba - San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
27.08.26	Platense - Instituto Córdoba	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.03.26	Instituto Córdoba - Independiente	2:1
29.08.25	Instituto Córdoba - Independiente	0:0
22.02.25	Independiente - Instituto Córdoba	2:0
18.07.24	Instituto Córdoba - Independiente	3:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
18.02.24	Instituto Córdoba - Independiente	0:2
24.09.23	Independiente - Instituto Córdoba	0:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.03.23	Independiente - Instituto Córdoba	2:2

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