Match Info

Liga Profesional - Clausura - Round 6

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	AFA Play, TNT Sports
Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Germany	Laola1
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Independiente		Independiente Rivadavia

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.82	3.5	Watch
	2.35	3.00	3.20
	1.98	3.2	4.1	Watch
	2.46	2.92	3.51
	2.44	3.05	3.18	Watch
	2.35	2.75	3.45
	2.42	2.9	3.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.02)	2.95 ↓ (3.39)	3.5 ↓ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente
40.6%

Draw
32.2%

Independiente Rivadavia
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

27.9%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

30.3%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente's form might have worsened.

Independiente Rivadavia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	42.9%	14.3%

Independiente - Independiente Rivadavia Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Independiente R will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Independiente R (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Independiente R (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente R (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rey R. (G) 4. Arias S. 26. Lomonaco K. 35. Arrayago J. 22. Zabala F. 23. Marcone I. (C) 7. Montiel S. 16. Perez Curci M. 14. Millan L. 24. Palais J. 9. Avalos G.	30. Bolcato N. (G) 2. Costa L. 40. Villalba I. 42. Studer S. 36. Bonifacio E. 5. Bottari T. 25. Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 3. Elordi J. M. 10. Fernandez M. 17. Salas M. 9. Arce A. (C)
Substitutes
19. Abaldo M. 10. Cabral L. 2. Calderon F. 20. Cruz F. 13. Fedorco J. 29. Godoy L. 28. Gutierrez M. 32. Martinez D. 39. Martino R. 77. Mele S. (G) 8. Meza M. 34. Tempone F.	19. Atencio R. 8. Bucca L. 23. Diaz L. 21. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 34. Moreyra S. 13. Osella A. 7. Ramis V. 11. Rios G. 45. Sabato L. 77. Sequeira L. 32. Vazquez K. A. 28. Vigo A.
Coaches
Viera J.	Berti A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Arias S. 🟨,
62', Bonifacio E. 🟨,
71', Montiel S. ↓, Abaldo M. ↑,
71', Palais J. ↓, Gutierrez M. ↑,
74', Costa L. ↓, Rios G. ↑,
77', Salas M. ↓, Bucca L. ↑,
77', Bonifacio E. ↓, Vigo A. ↑,
78', Vigo A. 🟨,
81', Elordi J. M. 🟨,
82', Millan L. ↓, Cabral L. ↑,
86', Fernandez M. ↓, Sequeira L. ↑,
90', Perez Curci M. ↓, Meza M. ↑,
90', Arias S. ↓, Godoy L. ↑,
90+4', Abaldo M. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 2.

In recent matches, Independiente has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Independiente R's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Independiente may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Independiente could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Independiente won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
17.08.26	Lanús - Independiente	1:3 ✺
Copa Argentina
12.08.26	Atlético Tucumán - Independiente	4:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
08.08.26	Independiente - Platense	0:1 ✺
03.08.26	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	1:0 ✺
30.07.26	Independiente - Newells Old Boys	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLLLW
- Independiente Rivadavia
Copa Libertadores
18.08.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Fluminense	1:2 penalties ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.08.26	Belgrano - Independiente Rivadavia	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
11.08.26	Fluminense - Independiente Rivadavia	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
07.08.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	2:1 ✺
03.08.26	Sarmiento de Junín - Independiente Rivadavia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.02.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Independiente	3:2
11.05.25	Independiente - Independiente Rivadavia	1:0
27.07.24	Independiente Rivadavia - Independiente	1:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
26.01.24	Independiente Rivadavia - Independiente	0:1
Argentinian Primera Nacional
03.03.14	Independiente Rivadavia - Independiente	2:1
01.09.13	Independiente - Independiente Rivadavia	0:0

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