Match Info

Division Intermedia - Round 30

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Independiente Asuncion		Paraguarí

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.20	3.40
	2.2	3.3	2.75
	2.35	3.35	2.75
	2.38	3.49	2.76	Watch
	2.3	3.05	2.7
	2.23	3.53	2.86
	2.21	3.35	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 (2.23)	3.32 ↓ (3.63)	2.86 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Asuncion
40.8%

Draw
27.4%

Paraguarí
31.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.6%

25.6%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

26%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Paraguarí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Asuncion than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Paraguarí aligns with the current prediction.

Independiente Asuncion - Paraguarí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
17', 0 - 1, Velazco Ramirez V. G. ⚽,
37', 0 - 2, Ayala G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 1 - 2, Marecos R. ⚽,
62', 1 - 3, Velazco Ramirez V. G. ⚽,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 6th and 5th).

In recent outings, Independiente FBC has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Paraguarí shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Independiente FBC has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Paraguari AC	30	14	5	11	45:38	7	47
6	Independiente FBC	30	11	10	9	46:41	5	43

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Asuncion - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 41.63%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Asuncion
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
20.10.26	Tacuary - Independiente Asuncion	3:2 ✺
10.10.26	Independiente Asuncion - Atlético Tembetary	3:0 ✺
06.10.26	Benjamín Aceval - Independiente Asuncion	2:3 ✺
Copa Paraguay
30.09.26	Independiente Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	3:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
25.09.26	Independiente Asuncion - Sportivo Carapeguá	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LWWWL
- Paraguarí AC
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
20.10.26	Paraguarí - Fernando de la Mora	2:0 ✺
09.10.26	Tacuary - Paraguarí	2:4 ✺
03.10.26	Paraguarí - 3 de Noviembre	1:0 ✺
28.09.26	Atlético Tembetary - Paraguarí	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Paraguarí - General Caballero JLM	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Division Intermedia
18.07.26	Paraguarí - Independiente Asuncion	3:2

Independiente Asuncion - Paraguarí