Match Info

Copa Paraguay - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Futbol Paraguayo, Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Independiente Asuncion		Nacional Asuncion

	1	X	2
	4.20	3.40	1.70
	4.5	3.4	1.62	Watch
	4.47	3.8	1.67
	4.47	3.49	1.73	Watch
	4.3	3.45	1.65
	4.69	3.65	1.72	Watch
	4.6	3.55	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.46 ↑ (4.03)	3.53 ↓ (4.05)	1.67 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Asuncion
20.3%

Draw
25.6%

Nacional Asuncion
54.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.7%

23.6%

52.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.5%

23.4%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Asuncion than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	28.6%	71.4%

Independiente Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Dramane D. ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Melgarejo R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 1 - 2, Espinola C. ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 2, Sarquis E. ⚽,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Sarquis E. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Meza L. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Montiel A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Jara F. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Roman R. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Prieto R. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Dramane D. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Espinola C. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Villalba C. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Coronel M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Nacional carries the favorite tag into this contest.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Asuncion
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
25.09.26	Independiente Asuncion - Sportivo Carapeguá	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	12 de Junio - Independiente Asuncion	0:4 ✺
14.09.26	Independiente Asuncion - Encarnación	1:0 ✺
09.09.26	Deportivo Santaní - Independiente Asuncion	1:2 ✺
04.09.26	Independiente Asuncion - Fernando de la Mora	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 LWWWT
- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
18.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Rubio Ñu - Nacional Asuncion	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Cerro Porteño - Nacional Asuncion	1:0 ✺
02.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWWLW

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