Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 4

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Mayorga Londono J. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Russia	Viju+ Sport
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, SportsEngine Play


	Independiente Medellín		Millonarios

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.25	2.63	Watch
	2.55	3.20	2.50
	2.28	3.30	3.10	Watch
	2.69	3.44	2.72
	2.25	3.25	3.22	Watch
	2.55	3.40	2.65
	2.70	3.34	2.70	Watch
	2.60	3.25	2.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.35)	3.3 ↑ (3.1)	2.77 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
37.3%

Draw
28.6%

Millonarios
34.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.2%

29.8%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Millonarios has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	42.9%	14.3%

Independiente Medellín - Millonarios Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Millonarios will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.16) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Chaux E. (G) 30. Palacios H. 39. Escorcia L. 19. Simarra A. 26. Mena Perea E. 14. Perlaza B. 6. Moreno D. (C) 11. Yony Gonzalez 21. Martegani A. 20. Montano J. 32. Lucumi C.	1. Burrai J. (G) 28. Vega S. 17. Arias J. 4. Barreiro S. 20. Banguero D. 55. Leonai Souza 30. Viveros S. 7. Cuadrado J. (C) 10. Ruiz D. 13. Chaverra F. 23. Castro L.
Substitutes
10. Catano D. 47. Cordoba J. 28. Davila A. 24. Erazo N. 1. Ichazo S. (G) 4. Mantilla K. 31. Moreno D. 80. Vallecilla H. 5. Varela J.	12. Aguirre J. (G) 24. Angulo J. 11. Estupinan A. 26. Llinas A. 35. Mosquera S. 25. Quintero D. 14. Silva D. 43. Uparela C. 22. Valencia S.
Coaches
Perea L.	Gamero A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
24', 0 - 1, Escorcia L. (Own goal),
31', Simarra A. 🟨,
39', 1 - 1, Palacios H. ⚽, Martegani A. (A),
45', 1 - 2, Castro L. ⚽, Banguero D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lucumi C. ↓, Erazo N. ↑,
53', 2 - 2, Erazo N. ⚽, Martegani A. (A),
59', Ruiz D. ↓, Estupinan A. ↑,
59', Cuadrado J. ↓, Silva D. ↑,
68', Chaverra F. 🟨,
69', Arias J. 🟨,
71', Montano J. ↓, Cordoba J. ↑,
73', Leonai Souza 🟨,
77', Yony Gonzalez ↓, Davila A. ↑,
78', Martegani A. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
82', Leonai Souza ↓, Quintero D. ↑,
87', Castro L. ↓, Llinas A. ↑,
87', Chaverra F. ↓, Valencia S. ↑,
88', Moreno D. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 2.

Ind Medellín is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Millonarios has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Millonarios may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:26. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1:0.9).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24:14	10	26
6	Ind. Medellin	14	7	2	5	21:19	2	23

Last Results with these Odds

Millonarios - the odds 2.98 are the expected chance of winning is 31%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
26.09.26	Junior Barranquilla - Independiente Medellín	2:0 ✺
22.09.26	Independiente Medellín - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
17.09.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Independiente Medellín	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Boyacá Chicó - Independiente Medellín	2:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
09.09.26	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Medellín	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWTLW
- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
24.09.26	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Millonarios - Boyacá Chicó	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Millonarios	1:2 ✺
10.09.26	Millonarios - Deportivo Cali	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Deportivo Pereira - Millonarios	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
02.02.26	Millonarios - Independiente Medellín	0:0
03.08.25	Independiente Medellín - Millonarios	1:0
15.02.25	Millonarios - Independiente Medellín	0:1
18.07.24	Independiente Medellín - Millonarios	1:1
21.01.24	Millonarios - Independiente Medellín	5:0
30.11.23	Independiente Medellín - Millonarios	2:1
26.11.23	Millonarios - Independiente Medellín	1:0

Upcoming Matches