The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Junior Barranquilla 40.9%
Draw 28.8%
Independiente Medellín 30.4%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
47%
26.1%
26.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
47.4%
26.3%
26.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Junior Barranquilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Junior Barranquilla's form might have worsened.
Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Junior Barranquilla than the current prediction. (+6.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Junior Barranquilla, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-3.7%)
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Junior will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Silveira M. (G) 98. Pena J. 5. Rivera D. 23. Ortiz P. 26. Suarez Y. 80. Angel Bernal F. S. 25. Caicedo D. 19. Fydriszewski F. 28. Celis G. 88. Castrillon B. 29. Gutierrez T. (C)
25. Chaux E. (G) 30. Palacios H. 4. Mantilla K. 19. Simarra A. 26. Mena Perea E. 34. Klinger K. 16. Loboa H. 6. Moreno D. (C) 20. Montano J. 21. Martegani A. 9. Medina J.
Substitutes
77. Barrios C. 8. Chara Y. 30. Martinez J. (G) 9. Paiva G. 14. Rios J. 7. Rivera H. 20. Sarmiento J. 34. Socarras D. 6. Villarreal D.
47. Cordoba J. 24. Erazo N. 39. Escorcia L. 1. Ichazo S. (G) 32. Lucumi C. 31. Moreno D. 14. Perlaza B. 5. Varela J. 11. Yony Gonzalez
Coaches
Viera S.
Perea L.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Klinger K. 🟥,
26', Loboa H. ↓, Perlaza B. ↑,
26', Medina J. ↓, Lucumi C. ↑,
42', Martegani A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', Castrillon B. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
58', Pena J. 🟨,
63', Fydriszewski F. ↓, Rivera H. ↑,
63', Celis G. ↓, Paiva G. ↑,
66', Martegani A. ↓, Erazo N. ↑,
66', Montano J. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
72', Mantilla K. 🟨,
73', 1 - 0, Gutierrez T. (Penalty Awarded),
77', Gutierrez T. ↓, Chara Y. ↑,
79', 2 - 0, Palacios H. (Own goal),
79', Mantilla K. ↓, Escorcia L. ↑,
84', Pena J. ↓, Socarras D. ↑,
90+2', Silveira M. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
90+5', Palacios H. 🟨,
90+7', Moreno D. ↓, Yony Gonzalez ↑,
Preview
A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 20th and 5th in the Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Junior won 1.
Junior has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Ind Medellín shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Ind Medellín may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Ind Medellín has had a run of games away from home.
Junior is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Junior has recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 22:23 (averaging 1.1:1.2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Junior against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 16:7 goals (averaging 1.8:0.8 per game).
Standings
Clausura
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
6
Ind. Medellin
14
7
2
5
21:19
2
23
16
Junior
14
2
6
6
19:23
-4
12
Last Results with these Odds
Junior Barranquilla - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 47.01%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.
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Silveira M. (G) 
Pena J. 
Fydriszewski F. 
Paiva G. 
