Match Info

Gaucho - Relegation - Round 4

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Presidente Vargas (Santa Maria)


	Inter Santa Maria		Guarany de Bagé

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.9	3.25	Watch
				Watch
	2.27	2.9	3.25
	2.3	2.86	3.5	Watch
	2.2	2.75	3.25
	2.25	3.03	3.4	Watch
	2.36	2.9	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.32)	2.89 ↑ (2.8)	3.31 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Inter Santa Maria
40.6%

Draw
31.7%

Guarany de Bagé
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

32.1%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

32.5%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Inter Santa Maria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Guarany de Bagé has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Santa Maria than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarany de Bagé than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Inter Santa Maria - Guarany de Bagé Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Inter SM (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Copetti (G) 2. Mizael 14. Salazar L. (C) 3. Tairone 6. Chico Bala 8. Mossoro 5. Mateus Santana 10. Vitor Junior 7. Laion 99. Michel Henrique 11. Jarro Pedroso	12. Thiago Goncalves (G) 22. Raphinha 13. Alberte 4. Bruno Cardoso 6. Vitor Oliveira 7. Marquinhos 19. Paulinho Souza 8. Murilo 11. Tony Junior 17. Marcao (C) 10. Welder
Substitutes
35. Comoreto V. (G) 19. Guedes I. 22. Itaqui 98. Joao Felipe 18. Julio Simas 4. Marcao 34. Marco Freitas 27. Marquinhos 94. Otavio Passos 28. Salas De La Hoz A. D. J. 17. Wilson Junior 9. Yuri Mamute	20. Adailson 16. Allan 18. Hiago Lucas 15. Jean Martim 1. Joao Vitor (G) 9. Lucao 2. Talles
Coaches
Wiliam Campos	Conte G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Bruno Cardoso ↓, Jean Martim ↑,
40', Tairone 🟨,
45+1', Murilo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Jarro Pedroso ↓, Joao Felipe ↑,
63', Tony Junior ↓, Adailson ↑,
67', Vitor Junior ↓, Wilson Junior ↑,
73', Mateus Santana ↓, Julio Simas ↑,
77', Marquinhos ↓, Talles ↑,
86', 0 - 1, Welder ⚽,
90', Vitor Oliveira 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Inter SM won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Inter SM will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Inter SM won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Inter SM won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Inter Santa Maria
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
16.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	3:2 ✺
09.02.26	Monsoon - Inter Santa Maria	1:1 ✺
05.02.26	Inter Santa Maria - Avenida	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Inter Santa Maria - Avenida	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTTWL
- Guarany de Bagé
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
16.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	3:2 ✺
09.02.26	Avenida - Guarany de Bagé	2:1 ✺
06.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Novo Hamburgo - Guarany de Bagé	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
16.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	3:2
24.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
02.07.23	Inter Santa Maria - Guarany de Bagé	1:1
29.04.23	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	2:1
02.10.21	Inter Santa Maria - Guarany de Bagé	2:1
22.08.21	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	1:1
11.03.20	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	2:2

Inter Santa Maria - Guarany de Bagé: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide