Match Info

Gaucho - Relegation - Round 1

Date: 6 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio Estrela d'Alva (Bage)


	Guarany de Bagé		Monsoon

	1	X	2
	1.8	3	4.33	Watch
	1.87	2.95	4.4
	1.89	3	4.88
	2.06	2.85	4.28	Watch
	1.91	2.75	4
	1.85	3.14	4.77	Watch
	1.86	2.95	4.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.15)	2.95 ↑ (2.94)	4.5 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarany de Bagé
48.5%

Draw
31.1%

Monsoon
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

31.6%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

30.8%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarany de Bagé has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guarany de Bagé's performance.

Monsoon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarany de Bagé than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monsoon than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Guarany de Bagé (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Guarany de Bagé (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Guarany de Bagé will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Guarany de Bagé (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jonathan (G) 14. Vitor Oliveira 13. Alberte 4. Bruno Cardoso 2. Talles 11. Tony Junior 16. Allan 15. Jean Martim 7. Marquinhos 8. Murilo (C) 10. Welder	1. Igor Pavan (G) 2. Medina F. 3. Hiago Cena 4. Yuri Bigode 6. Para 14. Ricardo Thalheimer 10. Jean Carlo (C) 5. Leo Hanna 8. Vinicius Garcia 7. Luan Santos 9. Fabinho Polhao
Substitutes
20. Adailson 5. David Cunha 18. Hiago Lucas 6. Jean Carlos 9. Lucao 17. Marcao 3. Michel Bennech 19. Paulinho Souza 22. Raphinha 12. Thiago Goncalves (G)	18. Anderson Paraiba 22. Brian Demski 17. Caio Rangel 13. Camargo 23. Hannyel 20. Jonathan Cabeca 11. Matheus Candido 19. Mikael Costa 12. Rena (G) 21. Rick Sena 16. Talyssson Lalau 15. Yago Alves
Coaches
Paim A.	Baier P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Jean Martim 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jean Martim ↓, Marcao ↑,
54', Medina F. ↓, Camargo ↑,
58', Yuri Bigode 🟨,
62', Jean Carlo ↓, Caio Rangel ↑,
64', Allan ↓, Raphinha ↑,
64', Tony Junior ↓, Lucao ↑,
72', Luan Santos ↓, Anderson Paraiba ↑,
74', Marquinhos ↓, Adailson ↑,
84', Raphinha 🟨,
86', Fabinho Polhao 🟨,

Preview

Recent form of Guarany de Bagé has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Monsoon's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Monsoon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Guarany de Bagé will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Guarany de Bagé won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Guarany de Bagé won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarany de Bagé
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
31.01.26	Novo Hamburgo - Guarany de Bagé	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	1:0 ✺
21.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Grêmio	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Caxias - Guarany de Bagé	4:1 ✺
15.01.26	Ypiranga - Guarany de Bagé	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWLLT
- Monsoon FC
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
31.01.26	Monsoon - São Luiz	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Juventude - Monsoon	3:0 ✺
22.01.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Monsoon	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Monsoon - Avenida	0:0 ✺
15.01.26	Monsoon - Internacional RS	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
10.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	1:1
06.02.25	Monsoon - Guarany de Bagé	1:3
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
13.08.23	Monsoon - Guarany de Bagé	0:0
06.08.23	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	1:0

Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide