Match Info

Gaucho - Relegation - Round 2

Date: 9 February 2026, Monday

Location: Francisco Novelletto Neto (Porto Alegre)


	Monsoon		Inter Santa Maria

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.7	2.9	Watch
	2.62	2.87	2.92
	2.66	2.86	2.91	Watch
	2.5	2.63	2.8
	2.54	2.77	2.81	Watch
	2.62	2.85	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.25)	2.78 ↓ (2.9)	2.87 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monsoon
35.4%

Draw
32.8%

Inter Santa Maria
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

31.4%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

30.1%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monsoon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monsoon's form might have worsened.

Inter Santa Maria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monsoon than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monsoon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Santa Maria than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Monsoon - Inter Santa Maria Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Igor Pavan (G) 3. Hiago Cena 14. Ricardo Thalheimer (C) 4. Yuri Bigode 2. Camargo 8. Vinicius Garcia 5. Leo Hanna 6. Para 7. Caio Rangel 9. Fabinho Polhao 10. Luan Santos	20. Iago Hass (G) 2. Mizael 14. Salazar L. (C) 5. Mateus Santana 94. Otavio Passos 8. Mossoro 28. Salas De La Hoz A. D. J. 11. Jarro Pedroso 18. Julio Simas 98. Joao Felipe 9. Yuri Mamute
Substitutes
17. Anderson Paraiba 19. Brian Demski 22. Carlos Gabriel 23. Hannyel 18. Henrique Marcos 15. Jonathan Cabeca 12. Marcelo Ribeiro (G) 21. Mikael Costa 20. Rick Sena 16. Talyssson Lalau 13. Yago Alves	6. Chico Bala 19. Guedes I. 22. Itaqui 7. Laion 4. Marcao 34. Marco Freitas 27. Marquinhos 99. Michel Henrique 1. Rafael Copetti (G) 3. Tairone 10. Vitor Junior 17. Wilson Junior
Coaches
Baier P.	Bruno Coutinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Joao Felipe ⚽,
22', Hiago Cena 🟨,
25', Hiago Cena ↓, Rick Sena ↑,
25', Para ↓, Talyssson Lalau ↑,
35', Talyssson Lalau 🟨,
42', Mossoro 🟨,
45+1', Otavio Passos 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Joao Felipe ↓, Wilson Junior ↑,
52', Yuri Mamute 🟨,
58', Otavio Passos ↓, Marco Freitas ↑,
58', Mossoro ↓, Chico Bala ↑,
61', Luan Santos ↓, Hannyel ↑,
69', Yuri Mamute ↓, Laion ↑,
72', Leo Hanna ↓, Anderson Paraiba ↑,
72', Camargo ↓, Jonathan Cabeca ↑,
79', Salas De La Hoz A. D. J. ↓, Guedes I. ↑,
88', Anderson Paraiba 🟨,
89', Ricardo Thalheimer 🟨,
90+2', Anderson Paraiba 🟥,
90+5', Marcao 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 1, Fabinho Polhao ⚽,

Preview

Monsoon has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Inter SM has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Inter SM may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Monsoon is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Monsoon won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Monsoon won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monsoon FC
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
06.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Monsoon - São Luiz	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Juventude - Monsoon	3:0 ✺
22.01.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Monsoon	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Monsoon - Avenida	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 TTLWT
- Inter Santa Maria
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
05.02.26	Inter Santa Maria - Avenida	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Inter Santa Maria - Avenida	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	1:0 ✺
21.01.26	Internacional RS - Inter Santa Maria	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Inter Santa Maria - Juventude	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
16.06.24	Inter Santa Maria - Monsoon	3:0
08.06.24	Monsoon - Inter Santa Maria	1:1

Monsoon - Inter Santa Maria: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide