Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Round 1

Date: 25 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana)


	Itabaiana		CRB Maceio

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.7	2.5
	3.25	3.1	2.15
	2.98	2.78	2.42
	3.24	2.81	2.58
	3.04	2.81	2.48
	2.88	2.75	2.5
	3.13	2.62	2.5	Watch
	3.3	3.05	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↓ (3.2)	2.83 ↓ (3.1)	2.41 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
29.6%

Draw
32.4%

CRB Maceio
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

29%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

28.5%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

CRB Maceio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CRB Maceio than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that CRB Maceio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Itabaiana - CRB Maceio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Souza (G) 3. Betao 10. Dione 11. Elimar 9. Everton Kanela 2. Isaque 8. Karl (C) 4. Ligger 5. Lucas Bessa 7. Rodrigo Alves 6. Tarcisio	12. Matheus Albino (G) 27. Fabio Alemao (C) 14. Guilherme Estrella 11. Guilherme Pato 44. Henri 32. Hereda 36. Lucas Lovat 50. Luizao 19. Luiz Phellype 21. Pedro Castro 20. Vinicius Barata
Substitutes
19. Andrade L. F. 21. Caio Felipe 22. Cleiton 15. Fabricio Moura 13. Gustavo Fagundes 12. Jefferson (G) 17. Leilson 14. Lucao 23. Pedro Igor 20. Renatinho 18. Ricardo Cerqueira 16. Tito	22. Bressan 8. Crystopher Ribeiro 97. Dada Belmonte 10. Danielzinho 16. David Braw 7. Douglas Baggio 9. Joao Neto 5. Kevin 77. Leo Campos 34. Lyncon 28. Mikael 1. Vitor Caetano (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Luiz Phellype ↓, Mikael ↑,
41', Henri 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Guilherme Estrella ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
51', Luizao ↓, Crystopher Ribeiro ↑,
68', Lucas Bessa ↓, Fabricio Moura ↑,
68', Dione ↓, Renatinho ↑,
72', Vinicius Barata ↓, Dada Belmonte ↑,
78', Elimar ↓, Leilson ↑,
78', Rodrigo Alves ↓, Pedro Igor ↑,
89', 🟨,

Preview

Itabaiana has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

CRB is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Itabaiana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

CRB could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Itabaiana won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Last Results with these Odds

CRB Maceio - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 42.85%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
08.03.26	Itabaiana - América de Propriá	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.03.26	Manauara - Itabaiana	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
28.02.26	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:2 ✺
25.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:2 ✺
20.02.26	Itabaiana - Falcon	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLWW
- CRB Maceio
Brazilian Serie B
21.03.26	Vila Nova - CRB Maceio	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
18.03.26	CRB Maceio - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Alagoas
18.03.26	CRB Maceio - CS Alagoano	1:3 ✺
14.03.26	CRB Maceio - Coruripe	5:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.26	Sousa - CRB Maceio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
03.02.24	Itabaiana - CRB Maceio	0:2
22.03.17	CRB Maceio - Itabaiana	0:0
26.01.17	Itabaiana - CRB Maceio	0:0

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