Match Info

Sergipano - Play Offs - 3rd place

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana)


	Itabaiana		América de Propriá

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.45	6.1
	1.54	3.39	6.23
	1.55	3.42	6.4	Watch
	1.53	3.25	6.5
	1.55	3.51	6.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.64)	3.4 ↑ (3.3)	6.39 ↑ (5.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
59.1%

Draw
26.7%

América de Propriá
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

27.8%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

26.6%

15.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

América de Propriá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América de Propriá than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Itabaiana - América de Propriá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Souza (G) 3. Betao (C) 2. Caio Felipe 10. Dione 11. Elimar 7. Fabricio Moura 4. Gustavo Cintra 5. Gustavo Crecci 8. Karl 9. Luan Silva 6. Tarcisio	1. Guiga (G) 5. Alisson 8. Danielzinho 16. Dudu 10. Obina 15. Paulo Miranda 9. Piaui 2. Renato 7. Soares Santos M. 11. Wesley Ceifador 3. Yuri Mamute

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Gustavo Crecci 🟨,
39', Renato 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Dione 🟨,
54', Luan Silva 🟨,
54', Alisson ↓, Biro Biro ↑,
59', Gustavo Crecci ↓, Pedro Igor ↑,
73', Dione ↓, Lemos I. ↑,
73', Fabricio Moura ↓, Yago Henrique ↑,
75', Danielzinho ↓, Leo Cotia ↑,
75', Renato ↓, Birimbau A. ↑,
75', Wesley Ceifador ↓, Rander ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Pedro Igor ⚽,
84', 🟨,
85', 🟨,
89', 🟥,
90+6', 🟨,
90+7', Elimar ↓, Gustavo Fagundes ↑,
90+7', Luan Silva ↓, Jair ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Itabaiana is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:4. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Itabaiana won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Copa do Brasil
04.03.26	Manauara - Itabaiana	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
28.02.26	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:2 ✺
25.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:2 ✺
20.02.26	Itabaiana - Falcon	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Itabaiana - Guarany de Porto da Folha	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLWWT
- América de Propriá
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
01.03.26	Sergipe - América de Propriá	2:1 penalties ✺
26.02.26	América de Propriá - Sergipe	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Lagarto - América de Propriá	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
18.02.26	América de Propriá - Tirol	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
14.02.26	Confiança - América de Propriá	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
11.02.26	América de Propriá - Itabaiana	0:3
15.03.25	Itabaiana - América de Propriá	1:0
09.03.25	América de Propriá - Itabaiana	1:1
25.01.25	América de Propriá - Itabaiana	1:1
07.02.24	Itabaiana - América de Propriá	2:0
05.02.23	América de Propriá - Itabaiana	2:2

Itabaiana - América de Propriá: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide