Match Info

Sergipano - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana)


	Itabaiana		Falcon

	1	X	2
	1.41	3.85	6.9
	1.39	3.91	6.94
	1.47	3.79	7.07	Watch
	1.44	3.5	7.5
	1.37	3.85	8.95
	1.47	3.8	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.41)	3.78 ↓ (4)	7.28 ↑ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
63.6%

Draw
24%

Falcon
12.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

22.7%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.2%

22.1%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Falcon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Falcon than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Itabaiana - Falcon Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Souza (G) 3. Betao (C) 10. Dione 11. Elimar 7. Fabricio Oya 5. Gustavo Crecci 2. Isaque 9. Jonata 8. Karl 4. Lucao 6. Tarcisio	1. Cadu Neves (G) 5. Andre Castro 8. Carlos 3. Davi 7. Davi Santos 6. Digao 11. Nauhan 4. Renan Correia 2. Roberto 10. Torelli Patrick 9. Ueslei
Substitutes
21. Caio Felipe 23. Dequinha 14. Dudu 13. Felipe Luan 16. Gustavo Cintra 15. Jair 12. Jefferson (G) 18. Kayan 20. Lemos I. 22. Luis V. 19. Vitinho 17. Yago Henrique	23. Ariel 18. Bruno Para 21. Canhota 14. Dida (G) 13. Igor 20. Jeanderson 22. Leonardo 17. Lucas Lopes 16. Matheus Moreira 19. Oliveira R. 15. Wesley Santos 12. Willian Santos (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Carlos Henrique 🟨,
14', Betao 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Dione ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nauhan ↓, Oliveira R. ↑,
46', Carlos Henrique ↓, Matheus Moreira ↑,
65', Isaque ↓, Caio Felipe ↑,
67', Torelli Patrick ↓, Jeanderson ↑,
67', Ueslei ↓, Lucas Lopes ↑,
71', Fabricio Oya ↓, Jair ↑,
74', Davi Santos ↓, Ariel ↑,
78', Jonata ↓, Kayan ↑,
78', Karl ↓, Yago Henrique ↑,
78', Dione ↓, Lemos I. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Itabaiana is the clear favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:3. (average 2.1:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Itabaiana won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:2. (average 2.6:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
14.02.26	Itabaiana - Guarany de Porto da Folha	1:1 ✺
11.02.26	América de Propriá - Itabaiana	0:3 ✺
08.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
04.02.26	Itabaiana - Dorense	3:0 ✺
31.01.26	Lagarto - Itabaiana	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWLWT
- Falcon FC
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
14.02.26	Falcon - Desportiva Aracaju	2:0 ✺
11.02.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Falcon	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	América de Propriá - Falcon	2:1 ✺
03.02.26	Falcon - Atlético Gloriense	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Dorense - Falcon	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
16.01.26	Falcon - Itabaiana	0:2
01.02.25	Itabaiana - Falcon	4:0
18.02.24	Itabaiana - Falcon	4:0
26.03.23	Itabaiana - Falcon	2:1 penalties
18.03.23	Falcon - Itabaiana	1:1
11.02.23	Itabaiana - Falcon	1:0
25.02.22	Itabaiana - Falcon	2:1

Itabaiana - Falcon: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide