Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 16

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Itabaiana		Caxias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.50	2.75	2.75
	2.80	2.90	2.60	Watch
	2.73	2.76	3.02
	2.71	2.71	3.02	Watch
	2.70	2.60	2.95
	2.61	2.60	2.91	Watch
	2.55	2.70	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↓ (2.88)	2.72 ↓ (3)	2.86 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
34.4%

Draw
33.7%

Caxias
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

30.8%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

31%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Caxias might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caxias could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Itabaiana - Caxias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jefferson (G) 9. Cleiton 17. Fabricio Oya 5. Gustavo Crecci (C) 3. Gustavo Fagundes 7. Leilson 4. Ligger 11. Renatinho 2. Ricardo Cerqueira 10. Rodrigo Alves 6. Tito	1. Busatto G. (G) 5. Breno Santos 7. Calyson 2. Felipe Albuquerque 3. Ianson 19. Jhonatan Ribeiro 10. Joao Lucas 4. Mancha 8. Marcelo Freitas (C) 9. Quirino 6. Victor Sa
Substitutes
22. Andrade L. F. 21. Caio Felipe 16. Dudu 8. Dyego 18. Elimar 19. Everton Kanela 12. Geaze (G) 14. Gustavo Cintra 15. Isaque 23. Julio Henrique 13. Lucao 20. Valdenilson	16. Andre 21. Dentinho 20. Felipe Rangel 12. Gabriel Toebe (G) 17. Gaspar 15. Grigor 22. Matheus Nunes 14. Mauricio Ribeiro 11. Vitor Feijao 18. Vitor Gabriel 13. Windson
Coaches
Marcelo Chamusca	Marcelo Cabo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Breno Santos ⚽,
34', Victor Sa 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Calyson ↓, Dentinho ↑,
46', Tito ↓, Julio Henrique ↑,
46', Renatinho ↓, Everton Kanela ↑,
48', 0 - 2, Joao Lucas ⚽,
54', Victor Sa ↓, Vitor Gabriel ↑,
65', Mancha ↓, Mauricio Ribeiro ↑,
66', Gustavo Fagundes 🟨,
67', Cleiton ↓, Andrade L. F. ↑,
69', Vitor Gabriel 🟨,
77', Leilson ↓, Dyego ↑,
77', Fabricio Oya ↓, Valdenilson ↑,
79', Marcelo Freitas ↓, Matheus Nunes ↑,
79', Joao Lucas ↓, Andre ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 and 11).

Itabaiana is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Caxias has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Caxias may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Caxias has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Itabaiana won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Including home match between the teams, Itabaiana won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
25.07.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
13.07.26	Itabaiana - Brusque	1:0 ✺
06.07.26	Amazonas - Itabaiana	0:2 ✺
27.06.26	Itabaiana - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
20.06.26	Anápolis - Itabaiana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 TWWWL
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
26.07.26	Caxias - Botafogo PB	1:2 ✺
11.07.26	Caxias - Floresta	0:0 ✺
04.07.26	Ferroviária - Caxias	0:1 ✺
30.06.26	Caxias - Anápolis	1:1 ✺
21.06.26	Caxias - Maringá	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
24.05.25	Itabaiana - Caxias	2:1

Itabaiana - Caxias: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide