Match Info

Sergipano - Round 6

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana)


	Itabaiana		Dorense

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.15	7.7
	1.32	4.27	7.83
	1.42	4.06	7.47	Watch
	1.36	4	8.5
	1.31	4.25	9.7
	1.4	4.25	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↑ (1.3)	4.16 ↓ (4.43)	7.98 ↓ (9.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
66.8%

Draw
21.8%

Dorense
11.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.3%

20.6%

9.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.5%

19.4%

8.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Dorense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Itabaiana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorense than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Itabaiana - Dorense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
58', 🟥,
60', 1 - 0, Luan Silva ⚽,
80', 2 - 0, Leilson ⚽,
84', 3 - 0, Jair ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 3.

Itabaiana is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Dorense's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Itabaiana is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 1.1:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Itabaiana won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 1.7:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
31.01.26	Lagarto - Itabaiana	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Itabaiana - Desportiva Aracaju	2:1 ✺
21.01.26	Itabaiana - Sergipe	0:1 ✺
16.01.26	Falcon - Itabaiana	0:2 ✺
11.01.26	Itabaiana - Atlético Gloriense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWLWW
- Dorense FC
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
31.01.26	Dorense - Falcon	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Dorense - Lagarto	1:5 ✺
22.01.26	Desportiva Aracaju - Dorense	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Dorense - América de Propriá	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Dorense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
16.02.25	Itabaiana - Dorense	4:1
30.03.24	Itabaiana - Dorense	2:0
16.03.24	Dorense - Itabaiana	1:1
13.03.24	Dorense - Itabaiana	0:0
21.01.23	Dorense - Itabaiana	0:1
28.03.21	Itabaiana - Dorense	0:0
24.02.21	Dorense - Itabaiana	0:0

Itabaiana - Dorense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide