Match Info

Sergipano - Round 5

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TV Record


	Lagarto		Itabaiana

	1	X	2
	2.82	2.82	2.45
	2.97	2.74	2.49
	3.08	3.01	2.33	Watch
	2.9	2.7	2.45
	3	2.78	2.45
	3.1	2.71	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.22)	2.79 ↓ (3.26)	2.44 ↓ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lagarto
30.4%

Draw
32.4%

Itabaiana
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

28.1%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

26.7%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lagarto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lagarto's form might have worsened.

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Itabaiana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lagarto than the current prediction. (+12.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lagarto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Itabaiana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lagarto - Itabaiana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lagarto won 0.

Lagarto is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Itabaiana has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Itabaiana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Lagarto won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 0.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lagarto won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.6:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lagarto FC
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
25.01.26	Dorense - Lagarto	1:5 ✺
21.01.26	Lagarto - Guarany de Porto da Folha	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Confiança - Lagarto	2:2 ✺
10.01.26	Lagarto - Falcon	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
29.12.25	Lagarto - CS Alagoano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWTTW
- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
25.01.26	Itabaiana - Desportiva Aracaju	2:1 ✺
21.01.26	Itabaiana - Sergipe	0:1 ✺
16.01.26	Falcon - Itabaiana	0:2 ✺
11.01.26	Itabaiana - Atlético Gloriense	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
30.12.25	Penedense - Itabaiana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
08.02.25	Lagarto - Itabaiana	0:1
09.03.24	Itabaiana - Lagarto	2:2
16.02.23	Itabaiana - Lagarto	1:0
20.03.22	Itabaiana - Lagarto	0:0
05.02.22	Lagarto - Itabaiana	1:2
09.05.21	Itabaiana - Lagarto	0:2
06.05.21	Lagarto - Itabaiana	2:0

Lagarto - Itabaiana: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide