Match Info

Mineiro Women - Round 3

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday


	Itabirito		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	2.60	3.40	2.25
	2.52	3.35	2.35
	3.03	3.04	2.3
	2.40	3.30	2.30
	2.52	3.70	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (3.65)	3.36 ↓ (3.86)	2.32 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabirito
34.4%

Draw
26.8%

América Mineiro
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

23.9%

50.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

21.1%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabirito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Itabirito's performance.

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and América Mineiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabirito than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Itabirito that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that América Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Itabirito - América Mineiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, ⚽,
14', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', 1 - 2, ⚽,
72', 2 - 2, ⚽,
80', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

In recent outings, Itabirito has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

América MG has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

América MG could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with América MG holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Itabirito has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:7 (averaging 1:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Itabirito against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Itabirito W	4	2	2	0	15:5	10	8
4	America Mineiro W	5	2	0	3	15:8	7	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Itabirito FC Women
Brazilian Mineiro Women
23.09.26	Itabirito - Cruzeiro	3:3 ✺
Brasileiro A2 Women
20.09.26	Vasco da Gama - Itabirito	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Itabirito - Vasco da Gama	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Mineiro Women
09.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Itabirito	0:0 ✺
Brasileiro A2 Women
06.09.26	Itabirito - Minas Brasília	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.5 TWLTW
- América Mineiro Women
Brazilian Mineiro Women
12.09.26	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:3 ✺
Brasileiro Women
22.08.26	América Mineiro - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Fluminense - América Mineiro	4:1 ✺
10.08.26	América Mineiro - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Grêmio Porto Alegrense - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Mineiro Women
20.09.25	América Mineiro - Itabirito	4:1
15.11.24	América Mineiro - Itabirito	2:1
10.11.24	Itabirito - América Mineiro	1:1

Itabirito - América Mineiro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide