Match Info

Mineiro - Round 6

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal Castor Cifuentes (Nova Lima)

Referee: Cardoso H. (Bra)


	Itabirito		Tombense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.68	3.1	2.52	Watch
	2.54	3.21	2.73
	2.97	3.09	2.34	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.5
	2.66	3.14	2.66	Watch
	2.54	3.2	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (3)	3.11 ↑ (3)	2.57 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabirito
34.7%

Draw
29.6%

Tombense
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

28.8%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabirito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Tombense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabirito than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Itabirito - Tombense Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
97. Vinicius Dias (G) 17. Gleisinho 3. Wallace 4. Felipe Camargo 15. Bryan Garcia (C) 10. Givigi G. 13. Serginho 21. Victor Ferreira 20. Luis Araujo 8. Pedro Rodrigues 28. Romario	1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 2. Julio Henrique 3. Breno Roma 4. Wesley (C) 6. PH 5. Joao Vitor 8. Dyego 11. Jefferson Renan 10. Pedro Oliveira 7. Rafinha 9. Julio Cesar
Substitutes
2. Denzel 18. Eduardo Santos 1. Gabriel Bernard (G) 9. Gabriel Morbeck 22. Hulk 19. Kevlin 29. Luis Campero 77. Mateus Renato (G) 26. Matheus Galdino 7. Nathan Zamith 6. Renan Gustavo 14. Tiago Barbosa	13. Auro 18. Cleiton 12. Douglas Marques (G) 19. Jupi 17. Luiz Felipe 20. Ronald 14. Rony Fernandes 15. Wanderson 16. Xavier
Coaches
Marcelo Caranhato	Borges C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Pedro Oliveira ⚽,
17', 0 - 2, Julio Cesar ⚽,
22', Pedro Rodrigues 🟨,
24', Pedro Rodrigues ↓, Matheus Galdino ↑,
29', Joao Vitor 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 2, Serginho (Penalty Awarded),
45+4', Wallace 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Joao Vitor ↓, Wanderson ↑,
55', Gleisinho ↓, Denzel ↑,
55', Luis Araujo ↓, Nathan Zamith ↑,
55', Julio Cesar 🟨,
58', Wanderson 🟨,
59', Pedro Oliveira ↓, Cleiton ↑,
59', Julio Cesar ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
67', Jefferson Renan ↓, Ronald ↑,
75', Romario ↓, Gabriel Morbeck ↑,
75', Wallace ↓, Kevlin ↑,
79', Rafinha ↓, Xavier ↑,
83', 2 - 2, Denzel ⚽, Matheus Galdino (A),
87', Victor Ferreira 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 3, Dyego ⚽, Cleiton (A),
90+4', Julio Henrique 🟨,
90+8', Kevlin 🟨,

Preview

Itabirito is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tombense has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Itabirito may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tombense could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Itabirito won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Itabirito FC
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
24.01.26	URT - Itabirito	2:1 ✺
21.01.26	Uberlândia - Itabirito	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Itabirito - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Pouso Alegre - Itabirito	3:1 ✺
10.01.26	Itabirito - Democrata GV	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LWTLL
- Tombense FC
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
25.01.26	Tombense - Democrata GV	2:0 ✺
21.01.26	Tombense - North Esporte Clube	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Atlético Mineiro - Tombense	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	Tombense - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
10.01.26	Uberlândia - Tombense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
22.01.25	Tombense - Itabirito	1:0

Itabirito - Tombense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide