Match Info

UAE League - Round 6

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium (Kalba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hong-kong	HOY TV
United-arab-emirates	Abu Dhabi Sports 1, ADtv
World	Triller TV+


	Ittihad Kalba		Shabab Al-Ahli

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	4.85	3.95	1.58
	4.63	4.32	1.58
	4.37	3.58	1.76	Watch
	4.88	4.05	1.59
	3.55	3.6	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.46 ↑ (3.66)	3.9 ↑ (3.68)	1.66 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ittihad Kalba
20.7%

Draw
23.7%

Shabab Al-Ahli
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

25.1%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

24.8%

50.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ittihad Kalba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Shabab Al-Ahli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Shabab Al-Ahli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ittihad Kalba than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shabab Al-Ahli than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Shabab Al-Ahli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ittihad Kalba - Shabab Al Ahli Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Shabab Al-Ahli (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Ittihad Kalba (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ittihad Kalba (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Shabab Al-Ahli (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Al Mantheri S. (G) 18. Rivas R. 16. Blazic M. 3. Sabeel M. 42. Abunamous A. 20. Saile 7. Ghoddos S. 12. Rashid S. 10. Nourollahi A. (C) 70. Moghanlou S. 14. Gassama S.	22. Al Meqebaali H. (G) 31. Kauan Santos 4. Planic B. 13. Renan 75. Mateus Henrique 57. Yuri Cesar 77. Guilherme 88. Maksimovic N. 80. Breno 10. Cartabia F. (C) 21. Adil S.
Substitutes
27. Al Blooshi Y. 15. Al Hamhami A. 6. Alivoda R. 55. Al Mansoori H. (G) 19. Alnaqbi A. 80. Jovic N. 37. Koffi K. 77. Leandro Spadacio 11. Lega S. 23. Rashid W. 5. Salmin A. 4. Samdaliri A.	99. Adyson 26. Al Nuaimi E. 9. Dabbur M. 6. Ezatolahi S. 14. Garcia D. 25. Gomes I. 12. Hamza H. (G) . Maqdami R. (G) 19. Mateusao 23. Seifi M.
Coaches
Rasovic V.	Sousa P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Rivas R. 🟨,
60', Abunamous A. ↓, Al Blooshi Y. ↑,
61', Gassama S. ↓, Leandro Spadacio ↑,
67', Breno ↓, Ezatolahi S. ↑,
67', Kauan Santos ↓, Seifi M. ↑,
78', Yuri Cesar ↓, Mateusao ↑,
83', Rivas R. 🟥,
86', Maksimovic N. ↓, Dabbur M. ↑,
86', Nourollahi A. ↓, Salmin A. ↑,
86', Ghoddos S. ↓, Samdaliri A. ↑,
89', Moghanlou S. 🟨,
90+7', Rashid S. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ittihad Kalba won 0.

In recent matches, Ittihad Kalba has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Shabab Al-Ahli is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Shabab Al-Ahli is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ittihad Kalba won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 13:38. (average 0.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ittihad Kalba won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 5:18. (average 0.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ittihad Kalba
UAE Football League
24.09.25	Khor Fakkan - Ittihad Kalba	2:4 ✺
20.09.25	Dibba Al Fujairah - Ittihad Kalba	1:2 ✺
11.09.25	Ittihad Kalba - Al-Wahda	0:0 ✺
UAE League Cup
05.09.25	Ittihad Kalba - Al Ain	0:1 penalties ✺
30.08.25	Al Ain - Ittihad Kalba	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.7 WWTLT
- Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
AFC Champions League
30.09.25	Al-Ittihad Jeddah - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:1 ✺
UAE Football League
25.09.25	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al Ain	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Al-Nasr - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
16.09.25	Shabab Al-Ahli - Tractor Sazi	1:1 ✺
UAE Football League
11.09.25	Shabab Al-Ahli - Bani Yas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

UAE Football League
11.04.25	Ittihad Kalba - Shabab Al-Ahli	1:2
22.11.24	Shabab Al-Ahli - Ittihad Kalba	0:0
21.04.24	Shabab Al-Ahli - Ittihad Kalba	4:1
03.11.23	Ittihad Kalba - Shabab Al-Ahli	1:3
02.03.23	Ittihad Kalba - Shabab Al-Ahli	1:2
07.10.22	Shabab Al-Ahli - Ittihad Kalba	0:0
07.05.22	Shabab Al-Ahli - Ittihad Kalba	2:1

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