The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Al-Nasr 31.8%
Draw 27.2%
Shabab Al-Ahli 41%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
27.4%
26.6%
46%
Our Initial ML Estimation
26.4%
25.7%
47.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Al-Nasr has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
Shabab Al-Ahli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Nasr than the current prediction. (-5.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Nasr that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shabab Al-Ahli than the current prediction. (+6.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shabab Al-Ahli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Al Nasr - Shabab Al Ahli Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Shambih A. (G) 52. Felipe Motta 4. Glauber 2. Sultan S. 24. Al Zaabi Z. 28. Toure A. 19. Milivojevic L. 38. Ndiaye M. 9. Santos J. 10. Ghayedi M. 20. Agudelo K.
12. Hamza H. (G) 23. Seifi M. 13. Renan 4. Planic B. 31. Kauan Santos 10. Cartabia F. 77. Guilherme 8. Alvarez G. 26. Khamis S. 9. Dabbur M. 19. Mateusao
Substitutes
8. Abdulbasit M. 25. Abdulrahman O. (G) 80. Al Somhi S. 40. Al Tamimi A. (G) 31. Amzar C. 5. Karamatic M. 6. Mahdi H. 43. Mensah B. 13. Mierez R. 75. Osama Z.
99. Adyson 3. Boualam Y. 80. Breno 25. Gomes I. 28. Gonzalez Baquero S. 58. Irala E. 55. Maqdami R. (G) 70. Thiago 57. Yuri Cesar
Coaches
Jokanovic S.
Sousa P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Ghayedi M. ⚽, Sultan S. (A),
25', 1 - 1, Mateusao ⚽, Al Nuaimi E. (A),
45', 2 - 1, Ghayedi M. ⚽, Felipe Motta (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Agudelo K. 🟨,
59', Milivojevic L. 🟨,
60', Dabbur M. 🟨,
61', 3 - 1, Toure A. ⚽, Agudelo K. (A),
67', Alvarez G. ↓, Breno ↑,
67', Dabbur M. ↓, Yuri Cesar ↑,
67', Seifi M. ↓, Gomes I. ↑,
75', Ghayedi M. ↓, Mensah B. ↑,
78', Al Nuaimi E. ↓, Gonzalez Baquero S. ↑,
82', 3 - 2, Yuri Cesar ⚽, Breno (A),
85', Sultan S. ↓, Amzar C. ↑,
90+2', Toure A. ↓, Mierez R. ↑,
90+2', Guilherme ↓, Thiago ↑,
90+3', Al Zaabi Z. 🟨,
Penalties (3 - 2)
1, Cartabia F. (Pen),
1, Milivojevic L. (Pen),
2, Mateusao (Pen),
2, Mensah B. (Pen),
3, Yuri Cesar (Pen),
3, Agudelo K. (Pen),
4, Gonzalez Baquero S. (Pen),
4, Santos J. (Pen),
5, Thiago (Pen),
Preview
1st leg result: 1-2. 2nd leg.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Nasr won 0.
Al-Nasr has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Shabab Al-Ahli is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins โ 4).
Al-Nasr may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Shabab Al-Ahli is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Nasr won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 30:40. (average 1.5:2).
Including home matches between the teams, Al-Nasr won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 2.1:2.1).
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Shambih A. (G) 
Felipe Motta 
Toure A. 
Milivojevic L. 
Ndiaye M. 
Ghayedi M. 
Agudelo K. 
Cartabia F. 
Dabbur M. 
Amzar C. 
Karamatic M. 
Mensah B. 
Boualam Y. 
Gonzalez Baquero S. 
Sousa P. 
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