Match Info

Paulista A2 - First stage - Round 15

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)


	Ituano		Atlético Monte Azul

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.7	5.25
	1.52	3.65	5.5	Watch
	1.56	3.65	5.91
	1.55	3.63	5.77	Watch
	1.57	3.4	5.5
	1.54	3.55	5.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.67)	3.6 ↑ (3.52)	5.63 ↑ (4.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
58.6%

Draw
25.3%

Atlético Monte Azul
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

25.6%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

21.7%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Atlético Monte Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ituano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Monte Azul than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Monte Azul could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ituano - Atlético Monte Azul Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ituano (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Victor Reis ⚽,
35', 2 - 0, Neto Berola ⚽,
38', 3 - 0, Neto Berola ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
53', 3 - 1, Luan Silva ⚽,
67', 3 - 2, Wallace ⚽,
78', 3 - 3, Vitinho (Penalty Awarded),
90+7', 🟥,
90+7', 🟥,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A2 (Second stage: ) and 14).

Ituano is Qualified for Paulista A2 (Second stage )

Ituano has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Monte Azul is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ituano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Monte Azul has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ituano is the obvious favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
01.03.26	Osasco Sporting - Ituano	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	São José-SP - Ituano	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Ituano - Sertãozinho	4:0 ✺
18.02.26	Ituano - Água Santa	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Piracicaba - Ituano	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWLW
- Atlético Monte Azul
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
04.03.26	Atlético Monte Azul - Sertãozinho	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Atlético Monte Azul - Água Santa	0:1 ✺
25.02.26	Atlético Monte Azul - CA Juventus	1:3 ✺
22.02.26	Ferroviária - Atlético Monte Azul	1:0 ✺
18.02.26	Atlético Monte Azul - Osasco Sporting	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLT

Ituano - Atlético Monte Azul: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide