Match Info

Paulista A2 - First stage - Round 13

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Martins Pereira (Sao Jose dos Campos) 🌤️ ...


	São José-SP		Ituano

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	2.8
	2.62	2.82	2.68	Watch
	2.79	2.85	2.74
	2.75	2.8	2.69	Watch
	2.7	2.63	2.75
	2.64	2.8	2.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.4)	2.82 ↓ (3.1)	2.72 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São José-SP
34.3%

Draw
32.3%

Ituano
33.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.1%

29.5%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

28.7%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São José-SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São José-SP than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

São José SP - Ituano Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - São José-SP (2.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. São José-SP (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Gabriel William ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Clessione ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 2 - 1, Michael Paulista (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A2 (Second stage: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A2 (Second stage: )).

Ituano is Qualified for Paulista A2 (Second stage )

São José-SP is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ituano is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ituano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ituano has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, São José-SP won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São José-SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
22.02.26	Santo André - São José-SP	0:3 ✺
18.02.26	São José-SP - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	São José-SP - Água Santa	1:0 ✺
11.02.26	Piracicaba - São José-SP	0:3 ✺
06.02.26	Taubaté - São José-SP	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 WTWWW
- Ituano
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
21.02.26	Ituano - Sertãozinho	4:0 ✺
18.02.26	Ituano - Água Santa	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Piracicaba - Ituano	0:1 ✺
11.02.26	Ituano - Internacional de Limeira	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Ituano - Santo André	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
01.02.25	Ituano - São José-SP	1:1

São José-SP - Ituano