Match Info

Paulista A2 - Second stage - Round 3

Date: 25 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports


	Ituano		Água Santa

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.16	3.05	3.56
	2.15	3	3.4	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.3
	2.12	2.95	3.44	Watch
	2.23	3.15	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.23)	3.01 ↓ (3.15)	3.32 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
42.2%

Draw
30.3%

Água Santa
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

28.5%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

29%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Água Santa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Ituano - Água Santa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Gabriel Razera ⚽,
37', 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 2 - 0, Souza L. ⚽,
52', 3 - 0, Thassio ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ituano won 1.

Ituano is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Água Santa is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ituano won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ituano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 1:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Ituano - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 40.29%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
18.03.26	Ituano - Piracicaba	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Votuporanguense - Ituano	3:0 ✺
07.03.26	Ituano - Atlético Monte Azul	3:3 ✺
01.03.26	Osasco Sporting - Ituano	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	São José-SP - Ituano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLTLL
- EC Água Santa
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
18.03.26	Água Santa - Votuporanguense	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Piracicaba - Água Santa	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Água Santa - Osasco Sporting	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Atlético Monte Azul - Água Santa	0:1 ✺
25.02.26	Água Santa - Grêmio Prudente	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
18.02.26	Ituano - Água Santa	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
11.02.24	Água Santa - Ituano	2:0
05.02.23	Ituano - Água Santa	0:3
28.03.22	Ituano - Água Santa	3:2 penalties
09.02.22	Água Santa - Ituano	2:2
02.02.20	Água Santa - Ituano	1:1
30.03.16	Água Santa - Ituano	0:0

Ituano - Água Santa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide