The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ituano 31.8%
Draw 30%
Maringá 38.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
40.1%
30%
29.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.5%
31%
28.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ituano's form might have worsened.
Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Maringá's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+9.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ituano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-9.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Maringá, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Ituano - Maringá Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Wingert (G) 10. Fernando Canesin (C) 9. Gabriel Razera 6. Guilherme Dal Pian 4. Leandro Sergipe 5. Leo Coltro 11. Leo Passos 3. Lucas Mota 8. Nelsinho 7. Richard 2. Victor Reis
1. Tony (G) 99. Caique Calito 7. Edison Negueba 14. Felipe Cardoso 3. Gabriel Santos 2. Gabriel Souza 10. Guilherme Pira 18. Jhow Alecxander 5. Kelvi Gomes 28. Lucas Bonifacio 23. Paulinho
Substitutes
19. Bruno Alves 17. Felipe Muranga 13. JP Abreu 15. Leo Souza 22. Lucas Dias 20. Lucas Stefanello 18. Malheiros P. 16. Marlinho 14. Moura E. 21. Teruel B. 12. Wesley Borges (G)
8. Adeilson 20. Bruno Cheron 32. Caua Tavares 11. Danielzinho 9. Giovane Gomez 17. Iago Santana 15. Neira N. 25. Neto (G) 77. Rafinha 29. Rai Natalino 26. Wallace
Coaches
de Freitas U.
Moises Egert
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
3', Lucas Wingert ↓, Wesley Borges ↑,
13', Paulinho 🟨,
19', Nelsinho 🟨,
22', Felipe Cardoso 🟨,
24', Gabriel Santos 🟥,
26', 1 - 0, Leo Coltro ⚽,
30', Victor Reis 🟨,
43', 2 - 0, Gabriel Razera ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Gabriel Souza ↓, Caua Tavares ↑,
46', Victor Reis ↓, Leo Souza ↑,
46', Nelsinho ↓, Felipe Muranga ↑,
46', Felipe Cardoso ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
59', 🟨,
61', Paulinho ↓, Adeilson ↑,
61', Caique Calito ↓, Rafinha ↑,
61', Fernando Canesin ↓, Lucas Stefanello ↑,
68', 3 - 0, Gabriel Razera ⚽,
73', Gabriel Razera ↓, Bruno Alves ↑,
74', Edison Negueba ↓, Giovane Gomez ↑,
80', 4 - 0, Lucas Stefanello ⚽,
84', 4 - 1, Rafinha ⚽,
90+1', 🟨,
Preview
Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).
Ituano has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Maringá has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Maringá may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Maringá has had a series of home games.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ituano won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).
Including home match between the teams, Ituano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.
Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now
Maringa FC: 6.99%
Last Results with these Odds
Maringá - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 29.92%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.
Watch
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