Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 3

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Nosso Futebol+


	Ituano		Tombense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.93	3	3.7
	2.09	3	3.5	Watch
	2.09	3.06	4.2
	2.16	2.95	3.78	Watch
	1.91	2.9	4
	2.06	2.94	3.66	Watch
	2.09	3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.77)	2.98 ↓ (3.3)	3.76 ↓ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
44.8%

Draw
30.8%

Tombense
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

27.7%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ituano's form might have worsened.

Tombense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	37.5%	0%

Ituano - Tombense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ituano: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Ituano (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Tombense (2.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ituano will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ituano (votes: 4 - 80%). Tombense (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saulo (G) 15. Bruno Silva 6. Guilherme Dal Pian 10. Leo Passos 3. Luiz Gustavo 4. Matheus Mancini (C) 11. Ramon 2. Thassio 8. Thiago Moraes 9. Vinicius Popo 21. Walterson Silva	1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 11. Anderson Ligeiro 5. Andre Cardoso 3. Ianson 10. Ingro 7. Joao Pedro 2. Leo Pereira 8. Lucas Mila 4. Roger Carvalho (C) 6. Tarcisio 9. Ze Eduardo
Substitutes
5. Daniel 13. Dija 20. Fernando Canesin 19. Gabriel Razera 22. Grigor 17. Gustavo 12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 18. Kaio Mendes 14. Nathan Silva 16. Tiaguinho 23. Ze Carlos	21. Adson 19. Douglas Coutinho 16. Fabricio Dias 14. Fernando 17. Jefferson Renan 13. Julio Henrique 18. Jupi 20. Pedro Oliveira 15. Rickson 12. Vinicius Dias (G)
Coaches
de Freitas U.	Raul Cabral

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Vinicius Popo ⚽,
25', Leo Pereira 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Joao Pedro ↓, Julio Henrique ↑,
46', Leo Pereira ↓, Pedro Oliveira ↑,
54', Lucas Mila ↓, Rickson ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Pedro Oliveira ⚽,
67', Walterson Silva ↓, Fernando Canesin ↑,
71', Thiago Moraes ↓, Tiaguinho ↑,
71', Vinicius Popo ↓, Kaio Mendes ↑,
75', Ingro ↓, Douglas Coutinho ↑,
76', 2 - 1, Leo Passos ⚽,
81', Andre Cardoso ↓, Jefferson Renan ↑,
84', 3 - 1, Kaio Mendes ⚽,
90+1', Bruno Silva ↓, Grigor ↑,
90+1', Leo Passos ↓, Gabriel Razera ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ituano won 3.

Recent matches Ituano is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Tombense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Ituano will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Ituano won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:6 (average 1.5:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Ituano won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:0 (average 2.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
19.04.25	Anápolis - Ituano	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Ituano - Brusque	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
29.03.25	Capivariano - Ituano	3:1 ✺
23.03.25	Ituano - Capivariano	0:1 ✺
19.03.25	Ituano - Ferroviária	4:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTLLW
- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie C
21.04.25	Tombense - Figueirense	3:2 ✺
13.04.25	Retrô Brasil - Tombense	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Operário Ferroviario - Tombense	1:0 ✺
26.02.25	Clube Sociedade Esportiva - Tombense	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
22.02.25	Tombense - Atlético Mineiro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
02.08.23	Ituano - Tombense	1:0
22.04.23	Tombense - Ituano	3:0
10.09.22	Ituano - Tombense	3:0
04.06.22	Tombense - Ituano	2:1
Brazilian Serie C
20.11.21	Ituano - Tombense	3:0
13.11.21	Tombense - Ituano	1:1
10.10.20	Tombense - Ituano	0:0

Ituano - Tombense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide