Match Info

Paulista A2 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 29 March 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Capivariano		Ituano

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.95	3.1
	2.48	2.8	2.95
	2.47	2.86	2.99	Watch
	2.58	3.04	2.83
	2.48	2.8	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.09)	2.89 ↓ (3.07)	2.96 ↓ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Capivariano
37.3%

Draw
31.8%

Ituano
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

29.8%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

29.5%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Capivariano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Capivariano's form might have worsened.

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Capivariano than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Capivariano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Capivariano - Ituano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, Baianinho ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
60', 2 - 0, Matheus Guilherme ⚽,
69', 2 - 1, Neto Berola ⚽,
84', 3 - 1, Vinicius Popo ⚽,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-0.

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A2 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A2 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Capivariano will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Capivariano won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:5 (average 0.5:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Ituano - the odds 3.42 are the expected chance of winning is 26.65%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Capivariano FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
23.03.25	Ituano - Capivariano	0:1 ✺
19.03.25	Capivariano - Piracicaba	3:1 penalties ✺
15.03.25	Piracicaba - Capivariano	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Ituano - Capivariano	3:0 ✺
01.03.25	Capivariano - São José-SP	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWLLW
- Ituano
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
23.03.25	Ituano - Capivariano	0:1 ✺
19.03.25	Ituano - Ferroviária	4:1 penalties ✺
15.03.25	Ferroviária - Ituano	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Ituano - Capivariano	3:0 ✺
01.03.25	Votuporanguense - Ituano	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
23.03.25	Ituano - Capivariano	0:1
08.03.25	Ituano - Capivariano	3:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
28.02.16	Ituano - Capivariano	2:1
15.02.15	Ituano - Capivariano	0:0

Capivariano - Ituano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide