Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 1

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)


	Ituano		Brusque

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.1
	2.1	3	3.45
	2.17	2.99	3.7	Watch
	2.06	3.04	3.51	Watch
	2.1	3	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.21)	2.99 ↑ (2.96)	3.44 ↑ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
42.9%

Draw
30.6%

Brusque
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

30.7%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

32.2%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Ituano - Brusque Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saulo (G) 10. Bruno Silva 6. Guilherme Dal Pian 11. Gustavo 3. Luiz Gustavo 4. Matheus Mancini 7. Osman 8. Ramon 2. Thassio 5. Thiago Moraes 9. Vinicius Popo	1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 66. Alex Ruan 7. Biel Fonseca 27. Diego Mathias 2. Everton Alemao 23. Guilherme Pira 30. Jean Mangabeira 19. Joao Veras 97. Mateus Pivo 18. Thomaz Carvalho 4. Torres J.
Substitutes
16. Abdias G. 22. Aluisio 18. Daniel 13. Dija 21. Gabriel Razera 15. Grigor 20. Kaio Mendes 19. Leo Passos 14. Nathan 12. Wesley Borges (G) 17. Ze Carlos	20. Acosta N. 8. Alex Paulino 90. Alvaro 22. Andre Luiz (G) 17. Contreras S. 6. Italo 28. Mauricio Ribeiro 94. Paulinho Moccelin 9. Pollero R. 10. Robinho 16. Rosales R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Diego Mathias 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gustavo ↓, Leo Passos ↑,
61', Guilherme Pira ↓, Robinho ↑,
61', Thomaz Carvalho ↓, Paulinho Moccelin ↑,
61', Biel Fonseca ↓, Rosales R. ↑,
67', Joao Veras ↓, Alvaro ↑,
69', Osman ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
77', Alex Paulino 🟨,
78', Mateus Pivo 🟨,
78', 🟨,
79', Vinicius Popo ↓, Gabriel Razera ↑,
80', Diego Mathias ↓, Italo ↑,
90', Thiago Moraes ↓, Kaio Mendes ↑,
90', Ramon ↓, Grigor ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ituano won 2.

Recent matches Ituano is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Brusque is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Ituano could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Ituano will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Ituano won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12:13 (average 1.2:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Ituano won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9:3 (average 1.8:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Ituano - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 41.09%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
29.03.25	Capivariano - Ituano	3:1 ✺
23.03.25	Ituano - Capivariano	0:1 ✺
19.03.25	Ituano - Ferroviária	4:1 penalties ✺
15.03.25	Ferroviária - Ituano	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Ituano - Capivariano	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWLW
- Brusque FC
Copa do Brasil
06.03.25	Olaria - Brusque	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.03.25	Brusque - Chapecoense	0:1 penalties ✺
22.02.25	Brusque - Hercílio Luz	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
19.02.25	Trem - Brusque	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
16.02.25	Concórdia - Brusque	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
14.10.24	Brusque - Ituano	1:0
22.06.24	Ituano - Brusque	1:1
24.09.22	Ituano - Brusque	2:0
11.06.22	Brusque - Ituano	0:1
Brazilian Serie C
11.01.21	Brusque - Ituano	4:2
21.12.20	Ituano - Brusque	1:1
29.10.20	Ituano - Brusque	3:1

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