Match Info

J2 League - Round 12

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Yamaha Stadium (Iwata) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	18:00	K-Ball
Japan	19:00	DAZN Japan


	Júbilo Iwata		Oita Trinita

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.10	3.60
	2.00	3.10	3.30
	1.89	3.30	3.85	Watch
	2.16	3.32	3.71
	1.91	3.4	4.07	Watch
	2.06	3.25	3.65
	2.11	3.12	3.62	Watch
	2.03	3.25	3.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.81)	3.23 ↓ (3.3)	3.68 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Júbilo Iwata
45.9%

Draw
28.8%

Oita Trinita
25.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.5%

27.7%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

28.4%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Júbilo Iwata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Oita Trinita has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Júbilo Iwata, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Iwata will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Oita Trinita will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Niekawa A. (G) 15. Yuri Lara 2. Danilo Cardoso 6. Kaneko D. 29. Kuwabara K. 77. Fujiwara K. (C) 18. Inoue S. 8. Tameda H. 14. Ohara M. 31. Iago Teles 11. Matheus Peixoto	22. Mun Kyung-Gun (G) 30. Tone I. 3. Miyakawa A. 6. Misao Y. 16. Shige T. 7. Nishimura Y. 19. Hayashida K. 14. Utsumoto S. 10. Matheus Leiria 18. Patrick Verhon 9. Arima K. (C)
Substitutes
23. Inui T. 37. Kawasaki I. 1. Kawashima E. (G) 66. Masuda S. 4. Matsubara K. 26. Nishikubo S. 32. Ota R. 47. Sato D. 7. Uehara R.	34. Furukawa D. 33. Inoue S. 17. Kimoto M. 20. Kimoto T. 44. Moriyama K. 2. Oda I. 8. Sakakibara K. 29. Sakurai Y. 1. Tanaka Y. (G)
Coaches
Akiba T.	Yomoda S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Shige T. ↓, Oda I. ↑,
53', Oda I. 🟨,
54', Iago Teles ↓, Inui T. ↑,
65', Nishimura Y. ↓, Sakakibara K. ↑,
65', Arima K. ↓, Furukawa D. ↑,
65', Patrick Verhon ↓, Kimoto M. ↑,
68', Matheus Peixoto ↓, Ota R. ↑,
68', Tameda H. ↓, Kawasaki I. ↑,
76', Inoue S. ↓, Uehara R. ↑,
76', Ohara M. ↓, Sato D. ↑,
80', Kimoto M. 🟨,
90', Utsumoto S. ↓, Moriyama K. ↑,
90+2', Ota R. 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 11th and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Iwata won 0.

Iwata has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Oita Trinita shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Oita Trinita could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Iwata carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Iwata has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:18 (averaging 1.1:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Iwata against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 8:11 goals (averaging 1.1:1.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Oita Trinita	13	4	7	2	17:10	7	19
14	Iwata	13	4	4	5	14:15	-1	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J2 League
17.10.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Júbilo Iwata	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
14.10.26	Júbilo Iwata - Kawasaki Frontale	0:4 ✺
Japan J2 League
10.10.26	Júbilo Iwata - Consadole Sapporo	1:0 ✺
04.10.26	Vegalta Sendai - Júbilo Iwata	2:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Júbilo Iwata - JEF United Chiba	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TLWLW
- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 League
17.10.26	Oita Trinita - Albirex Niigata	5:1 ✺
10.10.26	Yokohama FC - Oita Trinita	1:2 ✺
03.10.26	Oita Trinita - Montedio Yamagata	2:1 ✺
26.09.26	Oita Trinita - Fujieda MYFC	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Consadole Sapporo - Oita Trinita	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
31.08.25	Oita Trinita - Júbilo Iwata	0:0
25.04.25	Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita	0:3
01.07.23	Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita	1:1
01.04.23	Oita Trinita - Júbilo Iwata	2:1
Japan Emperors Cup
27.10.21	Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita	0:2
Japan J1 League
28.09.19	Oita Trinita - Júbilo Iwata	1:2
09.03.19	Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita	1:2

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