Match Info

J2 League - Round 11

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Resonac Dome Oita (Oita) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	13:00	K-Ball
Japan	14:00	DAZN Japan


	Oita Trinita		Albirex Niigata

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	2.7
	2.45	2.95	2.65
	2.45	3	2.72	Watch
	2.68	3.05	2.91
	2.61	3.08	2.81	Watch
	2.6	2.95	2.8
	2.52	2.98	2.59	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (2.75)	3.01 ↓ (3.12)	2.74 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oita Trinita
36.1%

Draw
30.4%

Albirex Niigata
33.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34%

29.9%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

30.5%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oita Trinita has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Oita Trinita - Albirex Niigata Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Mun Kyung-Gun (G) 30. Tone I. 3. Miyakawa A. 6. Misao Y. 16. Shige T. 7. Nishimura Y. 19. Hayashida K. 14. Utsumoto S. 10. Matheus Leiria 18. Patrick Verhon 9. Arima K. (C)	46. Baumann N. (G) 30. Sekiguchi M. 2. Geria J. 5. Fitzgerald M. (C) 26. Sato M. 22. Arai T. 8. Shirai E. 16. Osawa T. 55. Moraes M. 14. Konagaya C. 18. Wakatsuki Y.
Substitutes
34. Furukawa D. 33. Inoue S. 17. Kimoto M. 28. Kiyotake H. 44. Moriyama K. 2. Oda I. 8. Sakakibara K. 29. Sakurai Y. 1. Tanaka Y. (G)	15. Hayakawa F. 9. Iury Castilho 6. Kasai K. 3. Kato T. 32. Kuwayama K. 70. Maeda R. 38. Mori K. 17. Shimabuku K. 71. Uchiyama S. (G)
Coaches
Yomoda S.	Funakoshi Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Arima K. ⚽, Nishimura Y. (A),
41', 2 - 0, Arima K. ⚽, Nishimura Y. (A),
44', 2 - 1, Geria J. ⚽, Konagaya C. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Osawa T. ↓, Kasai K. ↑,
46', Arai T. ↓, Maeda R. ↑,
49', 3 - 1, Matheus Leiria (Penalty Awarded),
57', 4 - 1, Miyakawa A. ⚽, Patrick Verhon (A),
58', Nishimura Y. ↓, Sakakibara K. ↑,
58', Arima K. ↓, Furukawa D. ↑,
58', Moraes M. ↓, Shimabuku K. ↑,
66', Patrick Verhon ↓, Kimoto M. ↑,
68', Wakatsuki Y. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,
69', Konagaya C. ↓, Iury Castilho ↑,
76', Matheus Leiria ↓, Kiyotake H. ↑,
76', Shige T. ↓, Oda I. ↑,
90+5', 5 - 1, Utsumoto S. ⚽, Hayashida K. (A),

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 7th and 3rd in the Promotion - J2 League (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oita Trinita won 3.

Oita Trinita is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Performances by Albirex Niigata have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Oita Trinita has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:8 (averaging 2:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Oita Trinita against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 6:5 goals (averaging 2:1.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Albirex Niigata	13	8	2	3	19:21	-2	26
8	Oita Trinita	13	4	7	2	17:10	7	19

Last Results with these Odds

Albirex Niigata - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 36.08%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 League
10.10.26	Yokohama FC - Oita Trinita	1:2 ✺
03.10.26	Oita Trinita - Montedio Yamagata	2:1 ✺
26.09.26	Oita Trinita - Fujieda MYFC	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Consadole Sapporo - Oita Trinita	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Omiya Ardija - Oita Trinita	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 WWTTT
- Albirex Niigata
Japan J2 League
11.10.26	Shonan Bellmare - Albirex Niigata	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Albirex Niigata - Tokushima Vortis	2:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Albirex Niigata	1:0 ✺
Japan J2 League
26.09.26	Blaublitz Akita - Albirex Niigata	2:2 ✺
19.09.26	Albirex Niigata - Júbilo Iwata	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
03.09.22	Albirex Niigata - Oita Trinita	0:1
11.06.22	Oita Trinita - Albirex Niigata	1:2
05.08.18	Oita Trinita - Albirex Niigata	4:0
06.05.18	Albirex Niigata - Oita Trinita	1:2
Japan J1 League
10.11.13	Oita Trinita - Albirex Niigata	1:3
18.05.13	Albirex Niigata - Oita Trinita	2:3

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