Match Info

1. Liga - Round 21

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Futbols TV


	JFK Ventspils		Skanstes

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.60	2.30
	2.45	3.60	2.25
	2.54	3.86	2.18
	2.34	3.95	2.43	Watch
	2.50	3.80	2.15
	2.54	3.70	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.34)	3.75 ↓ (3.95)	2.25 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

JFK Ventspils
36.3%

Draw
23.9%

Skanstes
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

23.2%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

22.9%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

JFK Ventspils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Skanstes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for JFK Ventspils than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Skanstes than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

JFK Ventspils - Skanstes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
78', 1 - 0, Messina M. ⚽,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 13th in the Relegation and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, JFK Ventspils won 1.

JFK Ventspils is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Skanstes have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Skanstes may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, JFK Ventspils has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:10 (averaging 1:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for JFK Ventspils against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 3:5 goals (averaging 1:1.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Skanste	21	8	2	11	43:42	1	26
13	JFK Ventspils	21	3	6	12	21:41	-20	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- JFK Ventspils
Latvian 1 Liga
12.09.26	Metta - JFK Ventspils	7:0 ✺
05.09.26	Rīgas FS 2 - JFK Ventspils	4:1 ✺
29.08.26	JFK Ventspils - Riga 2	1:1 ✺
02.08.26	JFK Ventspils - Smiltene	1:2 ✺
25.07.26	Riga Mariners - JFK Ventspils	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LLTLT
- Skanstes SK
Latvian 1 Liga
14.09.26	Rīgas FS 2 - Skanstes	3:4 ✺
07.09.26	Riga 2 - Skanstes	3:2 ✺
30.08.26	Skanstes - Tukums 2000 2	6:2 ✺
01.08.26	Skanstes - Mārupe	4:2 ✺
25.07.26	Leevon PPK - Skanstes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
11.07.26	Skanstes - JFK Ventspils	0:3
25.10.25	Skanstes - JFK Ventspils	0:0
28.06.25	JFK Ventspils - Skanstes	2:2
19.10.24	JFK Ventspils - Skanstes	1:2
29.06.24	Skanstes - JFK Ventspils	3:0
12.11.23	JFK Ventspils - Skanstes	0:1
30.07.23	Skanstes - JFK Ventspils	2:1

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