Match Info
Nakotnes liga - Round 15Date: 2 August 2026, SundayWhere to Watch on TV: | |
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 Latvia | Futbols TV |
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JFK Ventspils |
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Smiltene |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
1.55 |
4.00 |
4.50 |
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 |
1.55 |
4.05 |
4.55 |
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 |
1.63 |
3.76 |
4.31 |
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1.57 |
4.09 |
4.73 |
 Watch |
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1.60 |
3.70 |
4.25 |
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 |
1.61 |
3.80 |
4.62 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.59 ↓
(1.75) |
3.9 ↑
(3.75) |
4.49 ↑
(3.6) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
- The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
JFK Ventspils
56.8% | Draw
23.1% | Smiltene
20.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
JFK Ventspils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in JFK Ventspils's performance.Smiltene has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for JFK Ventspils than the current prediction. (-11.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with JFK Ventspils that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Smiltene than the current prediction. (+7.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Smiltene could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.JFK Ventspils - Smiltene Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 11', 0 - 1, Gaismins V. ⚽,
- 14', 1 - 1, Liepajnieks V. ⚽,
- 41', Liepajnieks V. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 50', 1 - 2, Rams R. ⚽,
- 69', Cakurs B. 🟥,
Preview
This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 11 and 13 in the zone Relegation).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, JFK Ventspils won 3.JFK Ventspils has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).Smiltene has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins โ 1).Smiltene may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.Recently, Smiltene has had a series of home games. In this match, JFK Ventspils is seen as the favorite.In the last 7 head-to-head matches, JFK Ventspils won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 1.7:1.1).Including home matches between the teams, JFK Ventspils won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 11 | FK Smiltene | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 29:57 | -28 | 16 |
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| 13 | JFK Ventspils | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21:41 | -20 | 15 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Latvian 1 Liga | | | 28.03.26 | Smiltene - JFK Ventspils | 3:3 | | 20.09.25 | Smiltene - JFK Ventspils | 2:2 | | 11.05.25 | JFK Ventspils - Smiltene | 2:1 | | 31.08.24 | Smiltene - JFK Ventspils | 0:2 | | 05.05.24 | JFK Ventspils - Smiltene | 2:0 | | 27.08.23 | Smiltene - JFK Ventspils | 1:1 | | 29.04.23 | JFK Ventspils - Smiltene | 0:1 |
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