Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 13

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Jagiellonia II Białystok		Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.75	2.65
	2.15	3.5	2.65
	2.42	3.75	2.45
	2.28	3.68	2.62	Watch
	2.35	3.4	2.4
	2.38	3.88	2.48	Watch
	2.49	3.41	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.49)	3.62 ↑ (3.41)	2.51 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia II Białystok
39.1%

Draw
24.9%

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki
36%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.6%

26%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

25.9%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia II Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia II Białystok than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Jagiellonia II Białystok - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2nd Half (0 - 2)

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10th and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia II won 3.

Recent results have been tough for Jagiellonia II (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Świt has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Jagiellonia II may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Jagiellonia II has recorded 7 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:21 (averaging 1.9:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jagiellonia II against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 14:8 goals (averaging 2.3:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Swit Mazowiecki	14	8	2	4	28:20	8	26
11	Jagiellonia II	14	4	5	5	25:26	-1	17

Last Results with these Odds

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 38.49%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia II Białystok
Polish Division 3 - Group I
14.10.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Troszyn	0:1 ✺
10.10.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:2 ✺
25.09.26	Wisła Płock II - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - ŁKS Łódź II	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Mławianka Mława	7:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTLLW
- Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
10.10.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - ŁKS Łódź II	2:7 ✺
03.10.26	Mławianka Mława - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	2:4 ✺
25.09.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - ŁKS Łomża	4:0 ✺
18.09.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Weszło	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
11.04.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	3:2
20.09.25	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	3:2
23.11.24	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	5:2
03.08.24	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	1:0
17.03.24	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:0
23.08.23	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:2
03.06.23	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:3

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