Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 26

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Jagiellonia II Białystok		Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	1.37	4.7	6.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.79)	4.7 ↑ (3.41)	6.3 ↑ (3.6)

The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia II Białystok
66.3%

Draw
19.3%

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

26%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

24.1%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia II Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jagiellonia II Białystok's performance.

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia II Białystok than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jagiellonia II Białystok that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia II won 2.

Jagiellonia II is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Świt's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Jagiellonia II may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Jagiellonia II is considered a favorite.

We predict that Jagiellonia II will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia II won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:19. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Jagiellonia II won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 2.2:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Swit Mazowiecki	11	6	2	3	20:12	8	20
8	Jagiellonia II	10	4	3	3	22:20	2	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia II Białystok
Polish Division 3 - Group I
03.04.26	Wisła Płock II - Jagiellonia II Białystok	0:4 ✺
22.03.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Legia II	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Olimpia Elbląg	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Wikielec - Jagiellonia II Białystok	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WLWWW
- Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
03.04.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Olimpia Elbląg	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Warta Sieradz - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Mławianka Mława	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	GKS Bełchatów - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Widzew Łódź II	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
20.09.25	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	3:2
23.11.24	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	5:2
03.08.24	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	1:0
17.03.24	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:0
23.08.23	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:2
03.06.23	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:3
06.11.22	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	4:1

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