Match Info

Prva NL - Round 12

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion ŠRC Zaprešić (Zaprešić)


	Jarun Zagreb		Karlovac

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.2	1.75
	3.6	2.98	2
	3.29	3.03	2.15
	2.95	3.06	2.34	Watch
	4.52	3.34	1.83
	3	3	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.62 ↑ (2.95)	3.1 ↑ (3.06)	2.05 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jarun Zagreb
25.5%

Draw
29.7%

Karlovac
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

29.9%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

29.6%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jarun Zagreb has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jarun Zagreb's form might have worsened.

Karlovac has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Karlovac's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jarun Zagreb than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jarun Zagreb, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karlovac than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Karlovac, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Jarun Zagreb - Karlovac Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Prslja L. (G) 17. Cilic V. 2. Grdenic T. 19. Jug P. 10. Luetic K. 4. Mackovic M. 22. Maloca M. 30. Mamic I. 8. Mlinar F. 20. Ocvirek N. 34. Reyvandi A.	1. Maric D. I. (G) 7. Ereiz D. 28. Mionic A. 13. Mrkela P. 8. Paracki G. 24. Simcic D. 6. Simunic D. 4. Stepinac G. 15. Stipic M. 3. Zilinski F. 10. Zuljevic M.
Substitutes
11. Al Ghoul H. 3. Balen P. 14. Buzic M. 5. Djire A. 18. Dunic M. 25. Hodak D. 72. Krizanovic I. (G) 24. Matijevic V. 6. Piplica Z.	5. Braun P. 2. Brekalo F. 21. Gaspar M. 19. Kapulica L. 17. Koscevic Z. 20. Pamic Z. 11. Regetas D. 27. Salic S. 12. Sarkanj T. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Luetic K. ⚽,
35', Reyvandi A. 🟨,
45', Jug P. 🟨,
45+1', Zuljevic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Ereiz D. ↓, Budimir J. ↑,
46', Mionic A. ↓, Kapulica L. ↑,
49', 2 - 0, Luetic K. ⚽,
57', Mrkela P. ↓, Gaspar M. ↑,
61', 2 - 1, Gaspar M. ⚽,
61', Mamic I. ↓, Buzic M. ↑,
66', Cilic V. 🟨,
67', Cilic V. ↓, Al Ghoul H. ↑,
67', Reyvandi A. ↓, Matijevic V. ↑,
70', Zilinski F. ↓, Brekalo F. ↑,
78', 3 - 1, Luetic K. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Prva NL (Relegation) and 2).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Karlovac might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Jarun won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Jarun won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Karlovac - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 39.09%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jarun Zagreb
Croatian Prva NL
19.10.25	Jarun Zagreb - Dubrava	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	Croatia Zmijavci - Jarun Zagreb	2:2 ✺
04.10.25	Orijent - Jarun Zagreb	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	Jarun Zagreb - Cibalia	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Sesvete - Jarun Zagreb	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTLWL
- Karlovac
Croatian Prva NL
18.10.25	Orijent - Karlovac	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Karlovac - Cibalia	0:1 ✺
03.10.25	Karlovac - Sesvete	0:1 ✺
26.09.25	Karlovac - Opatija	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Bijelo Brdo - Karlovac	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Croatian Prva NL
15.08.25	Karlovac - Jarun Zagreb	2:0
Club Friendly
24.07.21	Jarun Zagreb - Karlovac	2:1
Croatian 3 HNL Center
05.05.21	Jarun Zagreb - Karlovac	2:1

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