Match Info

Date: 2 July 2022, Saturday

Location: J.J. Ugland Stadion – Levermyr (Grimstad)

Referee: Hagenes K. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+
Finland	Discovery+
Sweden	Discovery+


	Jerv		Haugesund

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.75	1.95	Watch
	3.5	3.6	1.95
	3.5	3.85	1.98
	3.5	3.55	1.95
	3.66	3.84	2.02
	3.6	3.4	1.88
	3.6	3.74	1.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.57 ↑ (2.73)	3.68 ↑ (3.15)	1.96 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jerv
26.4%

Draw
25.6%

Haugesund
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

29.6%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

29.5%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jerv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jerv's form might have worsened.

Haugesund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Haugesund's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jerv than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jerv, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Haugesund than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Haugesund, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.9%	16.7%	69.4%

Jerv - Haugesund Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Jerv will win (votes: 5 - 13.9%). Haugesund will win (votes: 25 - 69.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Haugesund: 54.3% – 84.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ OBOS~ligaen and 13).

Jerv has the most likely position - 16 (57.4%), has project points - 20, has currently - 7, has a good chance of relegated (90%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Haugesund has the most likely position - 12 (12.62%), has project points - 36, has currently - 12, has a small chance of relegated (12%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 18, small importance 29, small match rating 23. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Jerv is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Haugesund is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Haugesund could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Haugesund will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Jerv
Norwegian NM Cup
22.06.22	Fram Larvik - Jerv	1:2 ET ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
19.06.22	Jerv - Hamarkameratene	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
12.06.22	Jerv - Tromsø	1:5 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
29.05.22	Jerv - Sarpsborg 08	0:5 ✺
25.05.22	Aalesunds - Jerv	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 WLLLL
- FK Haugesund
Norwegian NM Cup
29.06.22	Sotra - Haugesund	0:1 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
25.06.22	Haugesund - Viking Stavanger	4:2 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
22.06.22	Fana - Haugesund	0:1 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
19.06.22	Tromsø - Haugesund	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
12.06.22	Haugesund - Brann	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWWTL

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