Match Info

Date: 29 May 2022, Sunday

Location: J.J. Ugland Stadion – Levermyr (Grimstad)

Referee: Aslam U. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Discovery+


	Jerv		Sarpsborg 08

	1	X	2
	4	3.6	1.9	Watch
	3.8	3.6	1.88
	3.85	3.55	1.97
	3.8	3.5	1.88
	3.98	3.86	1.93
	3.75	3.4	1.85
	3.98	3.64	1.91	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.88 ↑ (3.29)	3.59 ↑ (3.3)	1.9 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jerv
24.3%

Draw
26.2%

Sarpsborg 08
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

28%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

27.6%

44.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jerv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Sarpsborg 08 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sarpsborg 08's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jerv than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.9%	9.7%	77.4%

Jerv - Sarpsborg 08 Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Jerv will win (votes: 4 - 12.9%). Sarpsborg will win (votes: 24 - 77.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sarpsborg: 62.7% – 92.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ OBOS~ligaen and 9).

Jerv has the most likely position - 16 (33.13%), has project points - 25, has currently - 7, has a good chance of relegated (64%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Sarpsborg has the most likely position - 9 (11.94%), has project points - 38, has currently - 10, has a small chance of relegated (8%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 20, importance 33, small match rating 27. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Jerv is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Sarpsborg is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sarpsborg could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Sarpsborg will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Jerv: Fernandes L. (Injury) Mafi I. (Injury)

There will not play in Sarpsborg: Thomassen J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sarpsborg: Wichne E. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Jerv
Norwegian Eliteserien
25.05.22	Aalesunds - Jerv	2:1 ✺
22.05.22	Jerv - Odd	0:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
19.05.22	IL Express - Jerv	0:7 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
16.05.22	Viking Stavanger - Jerv	3:0 ✺
08.05.22	Jerv - Tromsø	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLWLT
- Sarpsborg 08
Norwegian Eliteserien
26.05.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Molde	1:2 ✺
22.05.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Aalesunds	1:2 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
19.05.22	Østsiden - Sarpsborg 08	0:7 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
16.05.22	Lillestrøm SK - Sarpsborg 08	1:0 ✺
07.05.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Odd	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLW

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