Match Info

NORWAY: OBOS-LIGAEN - ROUND 12

Date: 10 June 2023, Saturday

Location: J.J. Ugland Stadion – Levermyr (Grimstad)

Referee: Medic A. (Nor)


	Jerv		Raufoss

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3
	2.1	3.6	3.1
	2.2	3.51	3.26
	2.1	3.2	3.1
	2.15	3.52	3.24	Watch
	2.16	3.35	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.88)	3.41 ↑ (3.35)	3.16 ↓ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jerv
43.4%

Draw
27.3%

Raufoss
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

27%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

25.9%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jerv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Raufoss has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jerv than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jerv, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raufoss than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Raufoss, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85%	5%	10%

Jerv - Raufoss Predictions

Users Predictions: Jerv will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.35% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Ovretveit O. (G) 4. Mutsinzi A. 5. Sandberg E. 27. Philibert E. 2. Wichne T. 18. Richstad A. 6. Wichmann M. (C) 21. Auklend S. 19. Mafi I. 28. Gronner E. 8. Ugland M.	1. Lauvli O. (C) 5. Gudjonsson A. 14. Haruna J. 11. Fremstad N. 20. Simenstad G. 25. Froysa E. 6. Hammer H. 10. Mettler L. 16. Orsahl J. 9. Helmersen A. 21. Fagernes M.
Substitutes
22. Bredeli H. 15. Brenden E. 30. Cijntje J. 88. Duesund E. 16. Krogelien H. 1. Olsvoll A. (G) 54. Syvertsen P.	26. Brattbakk F. 3. Engebakken T. 31. Fagereng A. (G) 7. Osterud A. 74. Racaj A. 22. Teigen A. 4. Westerlund S.
Coaches
Sandsto A.	Walemark J.

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 9 and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Jerv won 3.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Recently opponents have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Jerv won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Jerv won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Jerv
Norwegian NM Cup
07.06.23	Kjelsås - Jerv	2:1 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
04.06.23	Sandnes Ulf - Jerv	2:3 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
01.06.23	Arendal - Jerv	0:1 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
29.05.23	Jerv - Hødd	2:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
24.05.23	Mandalskameratene - Jerv	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWWWW
- Raufoss Fotball
Norwegian NM Cup
07.06.23	Mjøndalen - Raufoss	0:4 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
04.06.23	Raufoss - Fredrikstad	1:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
01.06.23	Grorud - Raufoss	1:2 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
29.05.23	Moss - Raufoss	1:0 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
24.05.23	Brumunddal - Raufoss	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Adeccoligaen
20.11.21	Jerv - Raufoss	2:0
18.06.21	Raufoss - Jerv	3:0
10.10.20	Jerv - Raufoss	4:2
14.08.20	Raufoss - Jerv	1:1
15.09.19	Jerv - Raufoss	1:0
21.07.19	Raufoss - Jerv	4:2
14.08.16	Jerv - Raufoss	4:0

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