Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 19

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: San Marino Stadium (Serravalle)


	Juvenes-Dogana		Cailungo

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.6	5.15
	1.56	3.71	5.09
	1.55	4.04	5.14	Watch
	1.53	3.4	5.5
	1.65	3.79	5
	1.57	3.66	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.51)	3.7 ↓ (3.75)	5.15 ↓ (5.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juvenes-Dogana
57.9%

Draw
24.5%

Cailungo
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.6%

24%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

23.2%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juvenes-Dogana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Cailungo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juvenes-Dogana than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cailungo than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Juvenes Dogana - Cailungo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+2', 1 - 0, Aprea M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
76', 1 - 1, Bua A. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juvenes-Dogana won 5.

Juvenes-Dogana has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cailungo is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cailungo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Juvenes-Dogana is a strong favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Juvenes-Dogana won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:12. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Juvenes-Dogana won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Juvenes/Dogana	4	1	0	3	6:6	0	3
11	Cailungo	4	1	0	3	4:5	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juvenes-Dogana
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
24.01.26	Juvenes-Dogana - Tre Fiori	0:2 ✺
21.01.26	Cosmos - Juvenes-Dogana	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Juvenes-Dogana - San Giovanni	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Juvenes-Dogana - Pennarossa	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Folgore - Juvenes-Dogana	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LWTTT
- SP Cailungo
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
24.01.26	Cailungo - AC Libertas	1:2 ✺
20.01.26	Murata - Cailungo	0:2 ✺
17.01.26	Cailungo - Folgore	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Virtus - Cailungo	6:0 ✺
14.12.25	Cailungo - Tre Penne	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
27.09.25	Cailungo - Juvenes-Dogana	0:2
30.03.25	Cailungo - Juvenes-Dogana	1:2
30.11.24	Juvenes-Dogana - Cailungo	2:0
06.01.24	Cailungo - Juvenes-Dogana	0:1
23.04.23	Cailungo - Juvenes-Dogana	1:6
14.01.23	Juvenes-Dogana - Cailungo	0:2
San Marino Coppa Titano
19.10.22	Cailungo - Juvenes-Dogana	1:1

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