Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 17

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Murata		Cailungo

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.25	3	Watch
	2.16	3.43	3	Watch
	2.15	3	3
	2.18	3.2	3.03
	2.14	3.25	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.93)	3.23 ↓ (3.35)	3.01 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Murata
42%

Draw
28%

Cailungo
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

27.2%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

25.5%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Murata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Murata's form might have worsened.

Cailungo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Murata than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Murata, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cailungo than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cailungo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Murata - Cailungo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
69', 0 - 1, Bua A. ⚽, Conti A. (A),
82', 0 - 2, Michelucci R. ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Murata won 3.

Both teams are on a losing streak in recent matches.

Murata might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Murata won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Murata won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 2.3:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Cailungo	4	1	0	3	4:5	-1	3
12	Murata	4	1	0	3	4:10	-6	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Murata
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
17.01.26	Faetano - Murata	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Fiorentino - Murata	3:0 ✺
13.12.25	Murata - Virtus	0:2 ✺
06.12.25	Tre Fiori - Murata	4:0 ✺
30.11.25	Murata - Pennarossa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- SP Cailungo
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
17.01.26	Cailungo - Folgore	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Virtus - Cailungo	6:0 ✺
14.12.25	Cailungo - Tre Penne	0:2 ✺
07.12.25	Pennarossa - Cailungo	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Cailungo - Cosmos	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
13.09.25	Cailungo - Murata	1:1
16.02.25	Cailungo - Murata	1:0
18.10.24	Murata - Cailungo	2:1
18.02.24	Cailungo - Murata	1:3
20.10.23	Murata - Cailungo	3:0
02.04.23	Murata - Cailungo	2:1
03.12.22	Cailungo - Murata	4:1

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