Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 6

Date: 3 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Yamaha Stadium (Iwata)

Referee: Imamura Y. (Jpn)


	Júbilo Iwata		Albirex Niigata

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.25	2.9	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.95
	2.38	3.16	2.87	Watch
	2.48	3.32	3.05
	2.48	3.32	3.04
	2.4	3.1	2.75
	2.68	3.28	2.71	Watch
	2.44	3.15	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (3.42)	3.21 ↓ (3.52)	2.9 ↑ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Júbilo Iwata
38.1%

Draw
29.3%

Albirex Niigata
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

26.5%

46.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

26.3%

46.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Júbilo Iwata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Júbilo Iwata's performance.

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Albirex Niigata might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Júbilo Iwata that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Albirex Niigata could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	26.7%	46.7%

Júbilo Iwata - Albirex Niigata Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Iwata will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Albirex Niigata will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Albirex Niigata: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kawashima E. (G) 50. Uemura H. 15. Suzuki K. 36. Ricardo Graca 4. Matsubara K. 14. Matsumoto M. 77. Fujiwara K. 7. Uehara R. 37. Hirakawa R. 13. Fujikawa K. 11. Germain R.	1. Kojima R. (G) 32. Hasegawa T. 26. Endo R. 3. Deng T. 18. Hayakawa F. 8. Miyamoto E. 19. Hoshi Y. 17. Danilo Gomes 14. Hasegawa M. 16. Komi Y. 27. Nagakura M.
Substitutes
19. Bruno Jose 31. Furukawa Y. 16. Leo Gomes 99. Matheus Peixoto 21. Miura R. (G) 3. Morioka R. 26. Nishikubo S.	21. Abe K. (G) 6. Akiyama H. 5. Fitzgerald M. 24. Mori R. 30. Okumura J. 11. Ota S. 7. Taniguchi K.
Coaches
Yokouchi A.	Matsuhashi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Komi Y. 🟨,
44', Hoshi Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Fujikawa K. ↓, Matheus Peixoto ↑,
66', Fujiwara K. ↓, Leo Gomes ↑,
66', Hirakawa R. ↓, Furukawa Y. ↑,
67', Germain R. 🟨,
76', 1 - 0, Germain R. (Pen),
76', Hasegawa M. ↓, Okumura J. ↑,
76', Danilo Gomes ↓, Taniguchi K. ↑,
77', Nagakura M. ↓, Ota S. ↑,
79', 2 - 0, Germain R. ⚽, Matheus Peixoto (A),
82', Hoshi Y. ↓, Akiyama H. ↑,
90+6', Matsumoto M. ↓, Bruno Jose ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Iwata won 3.

Iwata is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Niigata is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Iwata won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 19-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Iwata won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J1 League
30.03.24	Kashima Antlers - Júbilo Iwata	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Gamba Osaka - Júbilo Iwata	2:1 ✺
09.03.24	Júbilo Iwata - Kashiwa Reysol	0:1 ✺
01.03.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Júbilo Iwata	4:5 ✺
23.02.24	Júbilo Iwata - Vissel Kobe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LLLWL
- Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League
30.03.24	Albirex Niigata - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1 ✺
16.03.24	Tokyo Verdy - Albirex Niigata	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
09.03.24	Tampines Rovers - Albirex Niigata	7:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
09.03.24	Albirex Niigata - Nagoya Grampus	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.03.24	Albirex Niigata - Lion City Sailors	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
03.11.21	Albirex Niigata - Júbilo Iwata	0:1
03.07.21	Júbilo Iwata - Albirex Niigata	3:2
11.11.20	Júbilo Iwata - Albirex Niigata	1:1
05.09.20	Albirex Niigata - Júbilo Iwata	1:3
Japan J1 League
21.10.17	Júbilo Iwata - Albirex Niigata	2:2
01.07.17	Albirex Niigata - Júbilo Iwata	0:2
01.10.16	Júbilo Iwata - Albirex Niigata	1:2

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