Match Info

J2 League - Round 11

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday

Location: Yamaha Stadium (Iwata)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Júbilo Iwata		Oita Trinita

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.3	Watch
	2	3	3.4
	2.26	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.36	3.24	3.44
	2.28	3.08	3.32	Watch
	2.05	3	3.5
	2.23	3.17	3.27	Watch
	2.26	3.1	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.88)	3.11 ↓ (3.65)	3.33 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Júbilo Iwata
42.1%

Draw
29.9%

Oita Trinita
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

24.9%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

24.5%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Júbilo Iwata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Júbilo Iwata's form might have worsened.

Oita Trinita has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Júbilo Iwata, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Iwata will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Oita Trinita will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Júbilo Iwata will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Abe K. (G) 38. Kawaguchi N. 5. Ezaki T. 36. Ricardo Graca 8. Tameda H. 25. Nakamura S. 7. Uehara R. 39. Sumi K. 23. Croux J. 20. Sato R. 71. Masui K.	32. Hamada T. (G) 18. Nodake J. 31. Matheus Pereira 3. Derlan 44. Yoshida M. 38. Amagasa T. 29. Utsumoto S. 25. Sakakibara K. 10. Nomura N. 9. Arima K. 13. Isa K.
Substitutes
6. Kaneko D. 33. Kawai T. 2. Kawasaki I. 1. Kawashima E. (G) 16. Leo Gomes 11. Matheus Peixoto 4. Matsubara K. 22. Ueebisu K. 9. Watanabe R.	21. Ayukawa S. 14. Ikeda R. 2. Kagawa Y. 41. Kim Hyun-woo 20. Kimoto T. 22. Mun Kyung-Gun (G) 30. Tone I. 39. Udo S. 15. Yashiki Y.
Coaches
Hutchinson J.	Katanosaka T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Nomura N. ⚽,
39', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
56', Sato R. ↓, Watanabe R. ↑,
56', Kawaguchi N. ↓, Matsubara K. ↑,
58', 0 - 2, Derlan ⚽, Utsumoto S. (A),
64', Nomura N. ↓, Ikeda R. ↑,
64', 0 - 3, Watanabe R. (Own goal),
67', Nakamura S. ↓, Kawai T. ↑,
67', Sumi K. ↓, Matheus Peixoto ↑,
76', Isa K. ↓, Ayukawa S. ↑,
76', Yoshida M. ↓, Udo S. ↑,
77', Masui K. ↓, Kawasaki I. ↑,
88', Arima K. ↓, Kagawa Y. ↑,
88', Sakakibara K. ↓, Tone I. ↑,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: ) and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Iwata won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Iwata will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Iwata won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14:15 (average 1.3:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Iwata won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:8 (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J2 League
20.04.25	Blaublitz Akita - Júbilo Iwata	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Júbilo Iwata - Roasso Kumamoto	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.04.25	Júbilo Iwata - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
05.04.25	Montedio Yamagata - Júbilo Iwata	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Júbilo Iwata - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LTWTW
- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 League
20.04.25	JEF United Chiba - Oita Trinita	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Oita Trinita - Tokushima Vortis	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Omiya Ardija - Oita Trinita	2:2 ✺
30.03.25	Ehime - Oita Trinita	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Oita Trinita - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
01.07.23	Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita	1:1
01.04.23	Oita Trinita - Júbilo Iwata	2:1
Japan Emperors Cup
27.10.21	Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita	0:2
Japan J1 League
28.09.19	Oita Trinita - Júbilo Iwata	1:2
09.03.19	Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita	1:2
Japan J2 League
23.11.15	Oita Trinita - Júbilo Iwata	1:2
29.03.15	Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita	2:1

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