Match Info

FNL - Round 33

Date: 19 May 2025, Monday

Location: KAMAZ Stadium (Naberezhnye Chelny)

Referee: Matveev S. (Rus)


	KAMAZ		Alania Vladikavkaz

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.07	5.31
	1.6	3.94	5.48	Watch
	1.48	3.4	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.62)	3.8 ↑ (3.6)	5.04 ↓ (6.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KAMAZ
58%

Draw
23.9%

Alania Vladikavkaz
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

26.6%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

21.4%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KAMAZ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Alania Vladikavkaz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KAMAZ than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with KAMAZ that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alania Vladikavkaz than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

KAMAZ - Alania Vladikavkaz Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. KAMAZ will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Alania will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for KAMAZ: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. KAMAZ (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Alania (3.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Alania (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. KAMAZ (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Alania (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Anisimov A. (C) 76. Sukhanov A. 3. Marugin D. 18. Tananeev D. 13. Pochivalin V. 8. Starodub D. 2. Khubaev D. 14. Abdullaev S. 20. Zhigulev I. 53. Deryugin A. 59. Motorin D. N.	24. Magomedov A. (G) 19. Butaev A. 95. Gogniev S. 71. Byazrov A. 58. Yshyk M. 21. Kozyrev A. 73. Chirkov M. 8. Khugaev A. (C) 9. Zakirov A. M. 12. Kazantsev D. 76. Nafikov V.
Substitutes
11. Apekov R. 15. Burko M. 42. Kirillov Y. 6. Kozlov I. 16. Kuptsov I. (G) 5. Kusyapov T. 17. Lauk M. 27. Manuylov R. 77. Platon N. 22. Solodukhin A. 28. Sultonov M.	5. Bagaev A. 87. Bulatsev T. 79. Chertkoev D. 65. Datiev Z. S. 70. Daurov R. 28. Dudaev I. 37. Gagloev T. 25. Kokoev D. 23. Natabashvili G. (G) 75. Ogoev S. 7. Tavzarashvili L.
Coaches
Akhmetzyanov I.	Gogniev S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Khugaev A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', Starodub D. ↓, Sultonov M. ↑,
62', Deryugin A. ↓, Apekov R. ↑,
64', Motorin D. N. 🟨,
64', Kozyrev A. ↓, Gagloev T. ↑,
64', Nafikov V. ↓, Chertkoev D. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Kazantsev D. ⚽,
76', Zhigulev I. ↓, Kirillov Y. ↑,
77', Abdullaev S. ↓, Lauk M. ↑,
79', Butaev A. 🟨,
81', Khugaev A. ↓, Ogoev S. ↑,
82', Butaev A. ↓, Daurov R. ↑,
84', Chertkoev D. 🟨,
87', Sukhanov A. ↓, Solodukhin A. ↑,
90+3', 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Tananeev D. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Alania is Relegated to

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KAMAZ won 2.

KAMAZ has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alania has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, KAMAZ is the team to beat.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, KAMAZ won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, KAMAZ won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny
Russian FNL
11.05.25	KAMAZ - Rotor	0:4 ✺
03.05.25	SKA Khabarovsk - KAMAZ	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	KAMAZ - Rodina Moscow	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - KAMAZ	0:0 ✺
13.04.25	KAMAZ - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLWTT
- Alania Vladikavkaz
Russian FNL
11.05.25	Alania Vladikavkaz - SKA Khabarovsk	0:4 ✺
03.05.25	Chayka Peschanokopskoye - Alania Vladikavkaz	0:3 ✺
27.04.25	Alania Vladikavkaz - Torpedo Moscow	2:4 ✺
20.04.25	Sochi - Alania Vladikavkaz	4:0 ✺
12.04.25	Ufa - Alania Vladikavkaz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
14.09.24	Alania Vladikavkaz - KAMAZ	0:2
12.11.23	KAMAZ - Alania Vladikavkaz	1:1
31.07.23	Alania Vladikavkaz - KAMAZ	2:0
02.04.23	KAMAZ - Alania Vladikavkaz	1:0
11.09.22	Alania Vladikavkaz - KAMAZ	4:2
21.05.22	Alania Vladikavkaz - KAMAZ	3:2
10.07.21	KAMAZ - Alania Vladikavkaz	1:1

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