Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Relegation Group

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Arto Tolsa Areena (Kotka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	KTP Kotka		FF Jaro

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.9	2.88	Watch
				Watch
	2.12	3.75	2.98
	2.13	3.97	3.19
	3.74	4.41	1.76	Watch
	2.17	3.8	3.05	Watch
	2.15	3.8	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.29)	3.94 ↑ (3.86)	2.76 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KTP Kotka
40.4%

Draw
24.6%

FF Jaro
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

24.6%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

24.6%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KTP Kotka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

FF Jaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KTP Kotka than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FF Jaro than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	11.1%	33.3%

KTP Kotka - FF Jaro Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. KTP will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Jaro will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for KTP: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Jaro (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - KTP (4.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. KTP (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Jaro (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Diakite M. (G) 42. Aspegren F. 44. Akpudje J. 26. Paavola M. 21. Sumusalo M. 18. Seck A. 24. Dubois L. 8. Kauko J. 37. Tanaka A. (C) 11. Lahdensuo T. 28. Rangel	13. Santos M. (C) 5. Bjonback A. 3. Gunnarsson E. 21. Myrevik J. 9. Valencic F. 16. Vidjeskog A. 4. Ogungbaro M. 42. Kusu M. 66. Kahkonen S. 11. Bjorkskog A. 95. Cissoko K.
Substitutes
10. Forsell P. 19. Glasson M. 1. Koski J. (G) 14. Lehtiranta J. 34. Linner A. 7. Makela J. 6. Tahmbi N. 9. Tarvonen A. 77. Weckstrom L.	6. Brunell J. 10. Eremenko S. 7. Izountouemoi S. 20. Kangaslahti O. 25. Ohberg E. (G) 40. Polley R. 33. Sipola S. 2. Sotelo G. 15. Vikstrom R.
Coaches
Nyholm J.	Vidjeskog N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Kahkonen S. ⚽, Valencic F. (A),
29', Tanaka A. 🟨,
32', 0 - 2, Cissoko K. ⚽, Kahkonen S. (A),
45', 1 - 2, Seck A. ⚽, Lahdensuo T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Aspegren F. 🟨,
59', Sumusalo M. ↓, Tarvonen A. ↑,
70', Bjonback A. ↓, Eremenko S. ↑,
70', Bjorkskog A. ↓, Sotelo G. ↑,
79', Aspegren F. ↓, Makela J. ↑,
79', Tanaka A. ↓, Forsell P. ↑,
83', Kusu M. 🟨,
83', Seck A. ↓, Glasson M. ↑,
85', Myrevik J. ↓, Brunell J. ↑,
85', Vidjeskog A. ↓, Sipola S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KTP won 4.

KTP has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Jaro's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Jaro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in KTP: Toivio J. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Jaro: Eremenko S. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, KTP won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 33:33. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, KTP won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KTP Kotka
Finnish Veikkausliiga
13.09.25	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	KTP Kotka - HJK	1:4 ✺
22.08.25	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	3:2 ✺
16.08.25	IFK Mariehamn - KTP Kotka	3:0 ✺
09.08.25	KTP Kotka - KuPS Kuopio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FF Jaro
Finnish Veikkausliiga
14.09.25	FF Jaro - Oulu	1:2 ✺
Finnish Cup
10.09.25	KuPS Kuopio - FF Jaro	2:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
31.08.25	Gnistan - FF Jaro	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	FF Jaro - KuPS Kuopio	1:3 ✺
18.08.25	FF Jaro - SJK	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
28.06.25	KTP Kotka - FF Jaro	3:2
26.04.25	FF Jaro - KTP Kotka	2:3
Finnish Ykkosliiga
25.08.24	FF Jaro - KTP Kotka	1:2
14.07.24	FF Jaro - KTP Kotka	5:2
13.05.24	KTP Kotka - FF Jaro	1:0
Finnish Ykkonen
18.09.22	FF Jaro - KTP Kotka	4:2
26.08.22	KTP Kotka - FF Jaro	2:1

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