Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Relegation Group

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Lemonsoft Stadion (Vaasa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	VPS Vaasa		KTP Kotka

	1	X	2
	1.73	4.1	3.9	Watch
	1.8	4	3.8
	1.75	4.05	3.8
	1.73	4.58	4.16
	1.09	9.60	23.67	Watch
	1.77	4.2	4.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.7)	5.09 ↑ (4.39)	7.23 ↑ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

VPS Vaasa
64.5%

Draw
20.8%

KTP Kotka
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

21.6%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

19.4%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

VPS Vaasa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in VPS Vaasa's performance.

KTP Kotka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and KTP Kotka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (-14.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with VPS Vaasa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KTP Kotka than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that KTP Kotka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. VPS (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Jalloh M. (G) 23. Niemi M. 19. Haukioja M. 29. Pedro Justiniano 24. Daoussi Y. 34. Raisanen A. 7. Cicale A. 21. Ahiabu P. 5. Ronnberg V. 10. Fall M. 11. Jakonen O.	16. Diakite M. (G) 21. Sumusalo M. 42. Aspegren F. 26. Paavola M. 4. Toivio J. 10. Forsell P. 6. Tahmbi N. 8. Kauko J. 18. Seck A. 77. Weckstrom L. 37. Tanaka A.
Substitutes
26. Almen A. 20. El Ouatki Y. 14. Fleuriau N. 27. Huhta K. 35. Keturi O. 25. Lindeman S. 37. Reid T. 12. Vetri L. (G) 18. Wilson W.	44. Akpudje J. 15. Edlund C. 19. Glasson M. 1. Koski J. (G) 11. Lahdensuo T. 14. Lehtiranta J. 34. Linner A. 9. Tarvonen A.
Coaches
Nuorela J.	Nyholm J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Ahiabu P. ⚽, Haukioja M. (A),
19', Daoussi Y. 🟨,
35', 2 - 0, Jakonen O. ⚽, Cicale A. (A),
44', Toivio J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Forsell P. ↓, Tarvonen A. ↑,
46', Daoussi Y. ↓, Reid T. ↑,
61', Tahmbi N. ↓, Edlund C. ↑,
62', 2 - 1, Paavola M. ⚽, Seck A. (A),
63', Ronnberg V. ↓, El Ouatki Y. ↑,
71', Jakonen O. ↓, Fleuriau N. ↑,
71', Cicale A. ↓, Wilson W. ↑,
78', Kauko J. ↓, Akpudje J. ↑,
81', Paavola M. 🟨,
86', Seck A. ↓, Lahdensuo T. ↑,
86', Paavola M. ↓, Glasson M. ↑,
88', Reid T. 🟨,
90', Sumusalo M. 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+4', Fleuriau N. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 12 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, VPS won 2.

In recent matches, VPS has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

KTP has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, VPS is considered a favorite.

There will not play in VPS: Vahtera J. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, VPS won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, VPS won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VPS Vaasa
Finnish Veikkausliiga
31.08.25	Inter Turku - VPS Vaasa	2:1 ✺
22.08.25	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	3:2 ✺
15.08.25	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	0:0 ✺
10.08.25	VPS Vaasa - SJK	1:2 ✺
01.08.25	VPS Vaasa - IFK Mariehamn	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWTLT
- KTP Kotka
Finnish Veikkausliiga
31.08.25	KTP Kotka - HJK	1:4 ✺
22.08.25	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	3:2 ✺
16.08.25	IFK Mariehamn - KTP Kotka	3:0 ✺
09.08.25	KTP Kotka - KuPS Kuopio	0:2 ✺
03.08.25	SJK - KTP Kotka	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
22.08.25	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	3:2
11.04.25	KTP Kotka - VPS Vaasa	2:2
25.08.23	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	2:1
03.06.23	KTP Kotka - VPS Vaasa	1:0
Finnish Ykkonen
04.11.20	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	2:4
15.08.20	KTP Kotka - VPS Vaasa	2:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.10.15	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	1:1

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