Match Info

Veikkausliiga

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Wiklöf Holding Arena (Mariehamn)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	IFK Mariehamn		KTP Kotka

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.7	2.55	Watch
	2.65	3.5	2.4
	2.45	3.7	2.65	Watch
	2.52	3.66	2.75
	2.75	3.48	2.42	Watch
	2.75	3.3	2.4
	2.4	3.69	2.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (2.67)	3.58 ↑ (3.5)	2.54 (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

IFK Mariehamn
36.7%

Draw
26.3%

KTP Kotka
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

27.1%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

27%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

IFK Mariehamn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

KTP Kotka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for IFK Mariehamn than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KTP Kotka than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

IFK Mariehamn - KTP Kotka Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Mariehamn will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). KTP will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mariehamn (votes: 1 - 25%). KTP (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Mariehamn (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Mariehamn (votes: 2 - 40%). KTP (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Riikonen M. (G) 28. Nissinen J. 30. Okereke E. 4. Lindgren P. (C) 33. Enqvist D. 20. Patut E. 8. Dahlstrom S. 6. Kujasalo N. 7. Adedoyin K. 18. Olawale M. 11. Reid J.	16. Diakite M. (G) 7. Makela J. 4. Toivio J. (C) 26. Paavola M. 44. Akpudje J. 14. Lehtiranta J. 42. Aspegren F. 10. Forsell P. 24. Toivonen A. 18. Seck A. 28. Rangel
Substitutes
43. Andersson L. 14. Fonsell M. 23. Heyden J. 17. Holmberg R. 16. Huttunen A. 21. Lundberg A. 1. Lund K. (G) 2. Nurmi N.	15. Edlund C. 8. Elle Essouma F. 19. Glasson M. 1. Koski J. (G) 11. Lahdensuo T. 21. Sumusalo M. 77. Weckstrom L.
Coaches
Williams G.	Nyholm J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Aspegren F. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
52', 1 - 0, Adedoyin K. ⚽, Patut E. (A),
63', 2 - 0, Nissinen J. ⚽,
66', Lehtiranta J. ↓, Lahdensuo T. ↑,
66', Seck A. ↓, Weckstrom L. ↑,
72', Reid J. ↓, Huttunen A. ↑,
73', Toivio J. 🟨,
81', Forsell P. ↓, Glasson M. ↑,
83', Dahlstrom S. ↓, Nurmi N. ↑,
88', Makela J. ↓, Edlund C. ↑,
88', Toivonen A. ↓, Elle Essouma F. ↑,
89', 3 - 0, Olawale M. ⚽, Adedoyin K. (A),
89', Olawale M. 🟨,
90+1', Kujasalo N. ↓, Holmberg R. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 12 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

KTP is Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mariehamn won 1.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Mariehamn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Mariehamn: Kivikko M. (Inactive)

There will not play in KTP: Tanaka A. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Mariehamn: Toivonen E. (Injury)

There are questionable in KTP: Paavola M. (Injury) Tarvonen A. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Mariehamn won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:13. (average 1.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Mariehamn won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.9:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IFK Mariehamn
Finnish Veikkausliiga
09.08.25	IFK Mariehamn - Gnistan	2:5 ✺
01.08.25	VPS Vaasa - IFK Mariehamn	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	IFK Mariehamn - Oulu	0:1 ✺
21.07.25	IFK Mariehamn - Haka	1:1 ✺
06.07.25	FF Jaro - IFK Mariehamn	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTLTT
- KTP Kotka
Finnish Veikkausliiga
09.08.25	KTP Kotka - KuPS Kuopio	0:2 ✺
03.08.25	SJK - KTP Kotka	3:0 ✺
26.07.25	Haka - KTP Kotka	2:3 ✺
18.07.25	KTP Kotka - Inter Turku	2:2 ✺
13.07.25	Oulu - KTP Kotka	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
31.05.25	KTP Kotka - IFK Mariehamn	2:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
22.02.25	IFK Mariehamn - KTP Kotka	1:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga
21.10.23	KTP Kotka - IFK Mariehamn	0:2
01.07.23	IFK Mariehamn - KTP Kotka	0:0
22.04.23	KTP Kotka - IFK Mariehamn	2:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
12.02.23	IFK Mariehamn - KTP Kotka	1:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.10.21	IFK Mariehamn - KTP Kotka	5:1

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