Match Info

Ykkosliiga

Date: 5 June 2026, Friday

Location: Markku.fi Areena (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	KaPa		KTP Kotka

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.00	1.49
	4.40	3.80	1.58	Watch
	5.80	4.44	1.54
	5.8	4.27	1.52	Watch
	4.50	3.50	1.62
	5.59	4.27	1.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.22 ↑ (4.15)	4.05 ↑ (3.67)	1.55 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KaPa
17.6%

Draw
22.8%

KTP Kotka
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22%

24.9%

53%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

24.4%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KaPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

KTP Kotka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting KTP Kotka's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KaPa than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KTP Kotka than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for KTP Kotka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

KaPa - KTP Kotka Predictions

Users Predictions: KTP Kotka will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Collin T. (G) 9. Almen A. 4. Hietalahti P. 2. Huhtamaki U. 25. Kuningas M. (C) 10. Lika Y. 5. Lindberg P. 6. Nurmi N. 22. Ripatti D. 21. Rokman D. 11. Sillah S.	33. Zhuk M. (G) 3. Agyei D. 4. Chibuzor C. 8. Coker M. 10. Forsell P. 11. Haapalainen R. 7. Makela J. (C) 17. Manneh F. 26. Paavola M. 19. Polat R. 13. Tahmbi N.
Substitutes
8. Huhtamaki R. 18. Jantunen E. 7. Leinonen N. 15. Pastinen A. 35. Piekkanen R. (G) 53. Pitkanen A. 13. Pulkkinen M.	21. Hanninen O. 5. Holtta S. 2. Huttunen O. 25. Leikas J. (G) 14. Sunday G. 37. Tanaka A.
Coaches
Lummepuro L.	Pasoja J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Tahmbi N. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Almen A. ⚽, Kuningas M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Makela J. 🟨,
59', Haapalainen R. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
60', Manneh F. ↓, Holtta S. ↑,
60', Forsell P. ↓, Hanninen O. ↑,
70', Hietalahti P. 🟨,
72', Sillah S. ↓, Huhtamaki R. ↑,
72', Ripatti D. ↓, Jantunen E. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Hanninen O. ⚽,
80', Polat R. ↓, Sunday G. ↑,
83', Lindberg P. ↓, Leinonen N. ↑,
83', Nurmi N. ↓, Pastinen A. ↑,
85', Kuningas M. 🟨,
86', Tanaka A. 🟨,
89', Holtta S. 🟨,
89', Huhtamaki U. ↓, Pitkanen A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KaPa won 0.

KaPa has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

KTP is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, KTP is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, KaPa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:20. (average 1.7:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, KaPa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 2:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	KTP ✔	25	18	4	3	45:22	23	58
8	KaPa	25	6	6	13	30:45	-15	24

Last Results with these Odds

KaPa - the odds 4.15 are the expected chance of winning is 22.05%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KaPa
Finnish Ykkosliiga
29.05.26	KaPa - JäPS	2:1 ✺
23.05.26	Ekenäs - KaPa	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	KaPa - PK-35 Vantaa	0:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
13.05.26	KaPa - MYPA	1:2 penalties ✺
Finnish Ykkosliiga
09.05.26	KTP Kotka - KaPa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLTLL
- KTP Kotka
Finnish Ykkosliiga
29.05.26	KTP Kotka - SJK Akatemia	1:0 ✺
23.05.26	Klubi 04 - KTP Kotka	0:1 ✺
16.05.26	JäPS - KTP Kotka	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	KTP Kotka - KaPa	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Ekenäs - KTP Kotka	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Ykkosliiga
09.05.26	KTP Kotka - KaPa	2:1
Finnish Ykkoscup
14.03.26	KaPa - KTP Kotka	1:2
Finnish Ykkosliiga
27.09.24	KTP Kotka - KaPa	7:2
27.07.24	KaPa - KTP Kotka	1:5
27.05.24	KTP Kotka - KaPa	2:1
Club Friendly
21.01.23	KaPa - KTP Kotka	4:2

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