Match Info

SWEDEN: Allsvenskan - Round 5

Date: 25 April 2024, Thursday

Location: Guldfågeln Arena (Kalmar)

Referee: Ladeback A. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+
Sweden	Discovery+


	Kalmar		GAIS

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	3.3	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.2
	2.36	3.4	3.1	Watch
	2.27	3.3	3.47
	2.26	3.29	3.47
	2.15	3.25	3.1
	2.29	3.31	3.36	Watch
	2.27	3.25	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.55)	3.28 ↓ (3.4)	3.28 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kalmar
42.1%

Draw
28.9%

GAIS
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

28%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

28.3%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kalmar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

GAIS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and GAIS might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kalmar than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for GAIS than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that GAIS could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Kalmar - GAIS Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Kalmar will win (votes: 7 - 70%). GAIS will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kalmar: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brolin S. (G) 26. Motaraghebjafarpour A. 39. Saetra L. 6. Sjostedt R. 3. Gersbach A. 11. Ring J. 29. Romario 10. Skrabb S. 20. Trenskow J. 9. Islamovic D. 21. Magashy A.	13. Sims K. (G) 6. Wangberg A. 4. Noren A. 12. Frej R. 5. Wendin R. 21. Henriksson A. 32. Ibrahim H. 25. Lindberg J. 9. Lundgren G. 16. Cooper-Love J. 10. Celik M.
Substitutes
16. Andersson W. 24. Andersson W. 18. Arvidsson G. 27. Davoudi-Kia A. 14. Isa L. 25. Jansson R. 7. Jensen K. 30. Kindberg J. (G) 12. Nilsson V.	7. Aberg J. 26. Amatkarijo C. 27. Bawa M. 11. Becirovic E. 17. Boudri A. 14. Gustafsson F. 18. Holmstrom A. 33. Krantz E. (G) 8. Milovanovic W.
Coaches
Jensen H.	Holmberg F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Lindberg J. ⚽,
35', Gersbach A. ↓, Jansson R. ↑,
40', 1 - 1, Trenskow J. ⚽, Skrabb S. (A),
45+1', Sjostedt R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Lindberg J. ↓, Boudri A. ↑,
53', Ring J. ↓, Jensen K. ↑,
56', 1 - 2, Boudri A. ⚽,
67', Celik M. ↓, Amatkarijo C. ↑,
67', Cooper-Love J. ↓, Holmstrom A. ↑,
67', Henriksson A. ↓, Milovanovic W. ↑,
78', Ibrahim H. 🟨,
86', Lundgren G. ↓, Gustafsson F. ↑,
87', 1 - 3, Holmstrom A. ⚽, Milovanovic W. (A),
89', Magashy A. ↓, Isa L. ↑,
89', Islamovic D. ↓, Andersson W. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 3, Saetra L. ⚽,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan and 9).

Kalmar is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches GAIS is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

GAIS could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Kalmar will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in GAIS: Beckman F. (Injury) Binaku E. (Injury) Friday R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Kalmar: Gustafsson C. (Injury) Karlsson J. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Kalmar won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Kalmar won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kalmar FF
Swedish Allsvenskan
22.04.24	Elfsborg - Kalmar	1:2 ✺
14.04.24	Kalmar - IFK Göteborg	0:1 ✺
08.04.24	Kalmar - Sirius	1:2 ✺
31.03.24	Hammarby - Kalmar	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
23.03.24	Öster - Kalmar	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLLL
- GAIS
Swedish Allsvenskan
21.04.24	GAIS - Mjällby	2:1 ✺
14.04.24	Norrköping - GAIS	1:0 ✺
08.04.24	Värnamo - GAIS	1:2 ✺
31.03.24	GAIS - Brommapojkarna	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
16.03.24	GAIS - Landskrona	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
02.09.12	GAIS - Kalmar	1:2
04.05.12	Kalmar - GAIS	2:2

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