Match Info

Allsvenskan - Round 18

Date: 2 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Finnvedsvallen (Varnamo)

Referee: Aganovic A. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	HBO Max, Veikkaus TV
Sweden	Discovery+, HBO Max, max Extra 2, TV4 Play


	Värnamo		GAIS

	1	X	2
	5	4	1.62	Watch
	4.8	3.8	1.66
	4.9	4	1.62	Watch
	5.09	4.13	1.65
	4.58	3.73	1.73	Watch
	5	3.75	1.67
	4.99	4	1.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.91 ↑ (4.04)	3.92 ↑ (3.6)	1.66 ↓ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Värnamo
19.2%

Draw
24%

GAIS
56.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

26.3%

50.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.7%

25.5%

51.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Värnamo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

GAIS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting GAIS's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for GAIS than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	5%	95%

Värnamo - GAIS Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - draw (1.17) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

DC, 1st Half - draw (1.17) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - GAIS (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: GAIS will win (19 of 20 users predict this - 95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): GAIS will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. GAIS (votes: 12 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Keto H. (G) 2. Rapp J. 27. Coulibaly S. 4. Mohammed R. 3. Bjornstrom A. 7. Johansson C. 22. Thern S. (C) 25. Shamoun N. 18. Alsalkhadi M. 14. Antonsson M. 10. Zeljkovic A.	1. Krasniqi M. (G) 6. Wangberg A. (C) 4. Agren O. 24. Beckman F. 2. de Brienne M. 32. Ibrahim H. 18. Holmen K. 10. Boudri A. 9. Lundgren G. 19. Diabate I. 16. Niklasson R.
Substitutes
21. Abdulrazak I. 6. Andersson H. 39. Andersson V. (G) 32. Bilalovic K. 15. Cibicki P. 19. Freij E. 16. Kujundzic A. 8. Liimatta O. 20. Winsth F.	11. Becirovic E. 29. Bengtsson D. 12. Frej R. 14. Gustafsson F. 28. Hedlund L. 25. Lindberg J. 13. Sims K. (G) 31. Sjoholm S. 17. Thorkelsson R.
Coaches
Sandsto A.	Holmberg F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Antonsson M. ⚽, Zeljkovic A. (A),
5', 1 - 1, Holmen K. ⚽,
16', Mohammed R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Coulibaly S. ↓, Andersson H. ↑,
58', Agren O. 🟨,
67', Ibrahim H. ↓, Becirovic E. ↑,
69', Shamoun N. ↓, Liimatta O. ↑,
69', Johansson C. ↓, Kujundzic A. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Liimatta O. ⚽,
75', Agren O. ↓, Frej R. ↑,
75', Niklasson R. ↓, Lindberg J. ↑,
75', Zeljkovic A. ↓, Bilalovic K. ↑,
78', 2 - 2, Lindberg J. ⚽, Lundgren G. (A),
87', Alsalkhadi M. ↓, Cibicki P. ↑,
89', Boudri A. ↓, Thorkelsson R. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 1.

Värnamo has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

GAIS is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, GAIS is the team to beat.

There are questionable in Värnamo: Bjornstrom A. (Injury) Lohikangas A. (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:24. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Värnamo won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.1:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Allsvenskan
27.07.25	Värnamo - Hammarby	2:3 ✺
21.07.25	Norrköping - Värnamo	3:1 ✺
13.07.25	Värnamo - Djurgården	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Hammarby - Värnamo	1:0 ✺
29.06.25	Värnamo - Elfsborg	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLWLT
- GAIS
Swedish Allsvenskan
26.07.25	GAIS - Halmstad	3:0 ✺
19.07.25	Degerfors - GAIS	0:3 ✺
13.07.25	GAIS - Hammarby	3:2 ✺
05.07.25	GAIS - Malmö	0:0 ✺
29.06.25	Häcken - GAIS	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
10.05.25	GAIS - Värnamo	1:1
20.10.24	GAIS - Värnamo	0:0
08.04.24	Värnamo - GAIS	1:2
Svenska Cupen
30.08.22	GAIS - Värnamo	3:1 ET
26.02.22	Värnamo - GAIS	1:0
Swedish Superettan
16.10.21	GAIS - Värnamo	1:2
10.05.21	Värnamo - GAIS	1:0

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