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Current Win Probability
Karpaty Lviv 20.9%
Draw 25.7%
Shakhtar Donetsk 53.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
17%
21.3%
61.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
18.2%
19.9%
57.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Karpaty Lviv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)
Shakhtar Donetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Shakhtar Donetsk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karpaty Lviv than the current prediction. (-2.7%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
Karpaty Lviv - Shakhtar Donetsk Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Marchenko D. (G) 14. Calero I. 4. Baboglo V. (C) 47. Jean Pedroso 73. Lyakh R. 8. Chachua A. 10. Moha Moukhliss 7. Fellipe Vieira 70. Alkain X. 31. Rusyn N. 17. Vantukh R.
31. Riznyk D. (G) 20. Karavaev O. 5. Bondar V. 22. Matvienko M. (C) 13. Pedro Henrique 27. Ocheretko O. 29. Nazaryna Y. 6. Marlon 30. Alisson 49. Luca Meirelles 11. Newerton
Substitutes
5. Buleza A. 28. Dyedov O. 21. Iglesias Lois B. 77. Joaquinete 19. Karabin Y. 11. Miroshnichenko D. 80. Mysak R. (G) 56. Reznik V. 20. Sapuga M. 9. Sery J. 55. Stetskov T. 36. Zhylkin A. (G)
25. Gabriel Carvalho 18. Ghram A. 14. Isaque Silva 9. Kaua Elias 8. Kryskiv D. 37. Lucas Ferreira 77. Mendoza G. 68. Obah P. 17. Tobias V. 2. Traore L. 24. Tsukanov V. 48. Tvardovskyi D. (G)
Coaches
Fernandez F.
Turan A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Rusyn N. ⚽, Calero I. (A),
22', Moha Moukhliss 🟨,
25', 1 - 1, Luca Meirelles ⚽,
34', Bondar V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Newerton 🟨,
59', Fellipe Vieira ↓, Sery J. ↑,
64', Luca Meirelles ↓, Kaua Elias ↑,
64', Nazaryna Y. ↓, Isaque Silva ↑,
64', Newerton ↓, Mendoza G. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Alisson ⚽, Isaque Silva (A),
70', Alisson ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
79', Calero I. ↓, Iglesias Lois B. ↑,
79', Vantukh R. ↓, Miroshnichenko D. ↑,
79', Rusyn N. ↓, Joaquinete ↑,
81', Lucas Ferreira 🟨,
88', Alkain X. ↓, Karabin Y. ↑,
90+2', Marlon ↓, Kryskiv D. ↑,
Preview
One of todayโs top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Karpaty won 0.
Karpaty has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Shakhtar is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins โ 3).
Karpaty may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Shakhtar is considered a favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Karpaty won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 16:57. (average 0.8:2.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Karpaty won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 11:26. (average 1.1:2.6).
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Marchenko D. (G) 
Calero I. 
Baboglo V. (C) 
Jean Pedroso 
Sery J. 
Ghram A. 
Mendoza G. 
Obah P. 
Traore L. 
Turan A. 
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