Match Info

JAPAN: EMPERORS CUP - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 12 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium (Kashiwa)


	Kashiwa Reysol		Tokushima Vortis

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.6	4.33
	1.75	3.3	4.1
	1.75	3.55	4.2
	1.79	3.72	4.83
	1.75	3.2	4.4
	1.72	3.6	4.65
	1.72	3.55	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.52)	3.5 ↑ (3.3)	4.44 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kashiwa Reysol
52.9%

Draw
26.3%

Tokushima Vortis
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

28.1%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

28.7%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kashiwa Reysol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kashiwa Reysol's performance.

Tokushima Vortis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tokushima Vortis might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kashiwa Reysol that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokushima Vortis than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tokushima Vortis could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	10%	6.7%

Kashiwa Reysol - Tokushima Vortis Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Kashiwa will win (votes: 25 - 83.3%). Tokushima will win (votes: 2 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kashiwa: 70% – 96.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Morita T. (G) 24. Kawaguchi N. 4. Koga T. (C) 35. Maie H. 2. Mitsumaru H. 40. Ochiai R. 41. Sento K. 5. Takamine T. 20. Tanaka H. 11. Yamada K. 45. Yamamoto O.	21. Tanaka H. (G) 19. Chiba K. 37. Hamashita A. 13. Hasegawa Y. 33. Nakano K. 27. Sakurai T. 17. Takada S. 2. Tamukai T. (C) 6. Uchida K. 16. Watari D. 25. Yamashita Y.
Substitutes
19. Hosoya M. 23. Iwashita W. 48. Kumasawa K. 10. Matheus Savio 9. Muto Y. 1. Saruta H. (G) 34. Tsuchiya T.	4. Abe T. 18. Elsinho 20. Kodama S. 28. Nishisaka T. 1. Suarez J. (G) 15. Tanahashi A. 32. Toyama R.
Coaches
Ihara M.	Labaien B.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Kashiwa won 5.

Kashiwa is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Tokushima is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Kashiwa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Kashiwa will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Kashiwa won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 15-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Kashiwa won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
08.07.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Shonan Bellmare	1:1 ✺
01.07.23	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	1:0 ✺
24.06.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Albirex Niigata	0:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
18.06.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
10.06.23	Yokohama F. Marinos - Kashiwa Reysol	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLTLL
- Tokushima Vortis
Japan J2 League
09.07.23	Tokushima Vortis - Fagiano Okayama	1:1 ✺
05.07.23	Mito HollyHock - Tokushima Vortis	3:1 ✺
01.07.23	Tokushima Vortis - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:0 ✺
25.06.23	Vegalta Sendai - Tokushima Vortis	1:1 ✺
17.06.23	Tokushima Vortis - Montedio Yamagata	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
22.06.22	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokushima Vortis	2:1
Japan J1 League
25.08.21	Tokushima Vortis - Kashiwa Reysol	0:1
24.04.21	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokushima Vortis	5:1
Japan J2 League
13.07.19	Tokushima Vortis - Kashiwa Reysol	1:2
12.05.19	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokushima Vortis	1:0
Japan J1 League
02.11.14	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokushima Vortis	2:0
23.03.14	Tokushima Vortis - Kashiwa Reysol	0:2

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