Match Info

J1 League - Round 4

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Ajinomoto Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tokyo		Kashiwa Reysol

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.55	Watch
	2.55	3.4	2.55
	2.78	3.2	2.42
	2.96	3.35	2.65
	2.87	3.17	2.57	Watch
	2.7	3	2.5
	2.9	3.25	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↓ (2.94)	3.22 ↓ (3.61)	2.53 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokyo
33.8%

Draw
29.1%

Kashiwa Reysol
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

26.2%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Kashiwa Reysol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	18.2%	63.6%

Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Tokyo will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Kashiwa will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kashiwa: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokyo (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Kashiwa (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Tokyo (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokyo (votes: 3 - 60%). Kashiwa (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Kim Seung-Gyu (G) 2. Muroya S. (C) 24. Scholz A. 17. Inamura H. 5. Nagatomo Y. 16. Sato K. 18. Hashimoto K. 27. Tokiwa K. 23. Sato R. 9. Marcelo Ryan 26. Nagakura M.	25. Kojima R. (G) 88. Baba S. 4. Koga T. (C) 26. Sugioka D. 24. Kubo T. 21. Konishi Y. 39. Nakagawa N. 15. Komi Y. 8. Koizumi Y. 87. Yamauchi H. 18. Kakita Y.
Substitutes
22. Endo K. 42. Hashimoto K. 10. Higashi K. 37. Koizumi K. 39. Nakagawa T. 15. Omori R. 55. Otani D. C. 1. Tanaka H. (G) 71. Yamada F.	9. Hosoya M. 13. Inukai T. 2. Mitsumaru H. 29. Nagai K. (G) 19. Nakama H. 20. Segawa Y. 28. Toshima S. 32. Yamanouchi Y. 16. Yuruki K.
Coaches
Matsuhashi R.	Rodriguez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Hashimoto K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
54', 0 - 1, Kakita Y. ⚽, Komi Y. (A),
63', Nagatomo Y. ↓, Hashimoto K. ↑,
63', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Endo K. ↑,
65', Yamauchi H. 🟨,
67', Kakita Y. ↓, Hosoya M. ↑,
67', Komi Y. ↓, Yamanouchi Y. ↑,
67', Yamauchi H. ↓, Segawa Y. ↑,
71', Sato R. 🟨,
75', Tokiwa K. ↓, Koizumi K. ↑,
75', Sato R. ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
81', Sato K. ↓, Nakagawa T. ↑,
82', 0 - 2, Segawa Y. ⚽,
83', Konishi Y. ↓, Toshima S. ↑,
85', Baba S. ↓, Inukai T. ↑,
88', Koizumi Y. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tokyo won 1.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Tokyo: Arai Y. (Knee Injury) Tawaratsumida K. (Inactive)

There will not play in Kashiwa: Kumasaka K. (Knee Injury) Tezuka K. (Knee Injury) Watai M. (Knee Injury) Yamada Y. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tokyo won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 29:26. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Tokyo won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1:1.2).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kashiwa Reysol: 11.22% FC Tokyo: 11.22%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	4	4	0	0	10:4	6	12
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8:7	1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Tokyo - the odds 2.94 are the expected chance of winning is 32.16%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Kashiwa Reysol - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 41.65%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
21.02.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Tokyo - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:1 penalties ✺
06.02.26	Tokyo - Kashima Antlers	2:1 penalties ✺
06.12.25	Tokyo - Albirex Niigata	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Vissel Kobe - Tokyo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23 WWWTT
- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
21.02.26	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo Verdy	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashiwa Reysol	5:3 ✺
Club Friendly
31.01.26	Kashiwa Reysol - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
06.12.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Machida Zelvia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
05.07.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo	1:0
11.04.25	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1
06.07.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo	3:2
11.05.24	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	3:3
01.07.23	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	1:0
26.02.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo	1:1
27.08.22	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo	3:6

Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide