The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Tokyo 51.9%
Draw 24.5%
Kashiwa Reysol 23.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
40%
27.1%
32.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40.8%
27.7%
31.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tokyo's performance.
Kashiwa Reysol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kashiwa Reysol might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (-11.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tokyo that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (+7.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kashiwa Reysol could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
73.3%
13.3%
13.3%
Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol Predictions
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Tokyo will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Kashiwa will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Tokyo: 50.9% โ 95.7%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokyo (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
BTTS - yes (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
EH +1 - Kashiwa (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokyo (votes: 2 - 50%). Kashiwa (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
81. Kim Seung-Gyu (G) 22. Ishihara H. 24. Scholz A. 4. Inamura H. (C) 6. Bangnagande K. 10. Sato K. 27. Tokiwa K. 8. Ko T. 7. Anzai S. 9. Marcelo Ryan 26. Nagakura M.
29. Nagai K. (G) 28. Toshima S. 4. Koga T. (C) 2. Mitsumaru H. 24. Kubo T. 21. Konishi Y. 39. Nakagawa N. 44. Yuba K. 87. Yamauchi H. 16. Yuruki K. 15. Fujio S.
Substitutes
99. Gomez D. 3. Morishige M. 20. Nagano S. 39. Nakagawa T. 15. Omori R. 44. Suzuki K. 1. Tanaka H. (G) 33. Tawaratsumida K. 71. Yamada F.
5. Endo K. 30. Furuya S. 42. Harada W. 40. Harakawa R. 9. Hosoya M. 8. Koizumi Y. 1. Saruta H. (G) 20. Segawa Y. 26. Sugioka D.
Coaches
Matsuhashi R.
Rodriguez R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Inamura H. 🟨,
44', Konishi Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yuruki K. ↓, Endo K. ↑,
46', Yamauchi H. ↓, Koizumi Y. ↑,
46', Toshima S. ↓, Harada W. ↑,
62', Bangnagande K. ↓, Tawaratsumida K. ↑,
65', Fujio S. ↓, Segawa Y. ↑,
72', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Nakagawa T. ↑,
72', Sato K. ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
75', Ishihara H. 🟨,
78', Kubo T. ↓, Hosoya M. ↑,
79', Koizumi Y. 🟨,
80', Scholz A. 🟨,
85', Harada W. 🟨,
86', Anzai S. ↓, Omori R. ↑,
87', Nagakura M. ↓, Gomez D. ↑,
90+4', Endo K. 🟨,
Preview
One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - AFC Champions League League phase and 3rd in the Promotion - AFC Champions League League phase).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tokyo won 1.
Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.
Tokyo may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Kashiwa has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
Tokyo is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
Confirmed absences for Tokyo: Hashimoto K.
(Broken Leg)
Homma S.
(Hamstring Injury)
Muroya S.
(Calf Injury)
Nagatomo Y.
(Knee Injury)
Vallys N.
(Knee Injury).
Confirmed absences for Kashiwa: Kumasaka K.
(Knee Injury)
Okubo T.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Tezuka K.
(Knee Injury)
Yamada Y.
(Knee Injury).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Tokyo has recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 30:27 (averaging 1.5:1.4 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Tokyo against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 8:11 goals (averaging 0.9:1.2 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
2
FC Tokyo
10
7
2
1
21:8
13
23
3
Kashiwa Reysol
10
7
0
3
22:17
5
21
Outrights of Japan J1 League for now
FC Tokyo: 15.51% Kashiwa Reysol: 12.92%
Last Results with these Odds
Kashiwa Reysol - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 32.88%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.
China
Japan
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Kim Seung-Gyu (G) 
Ishihara H. 
Scholz A. 
Marcelo Ryan 
Gomez D. 
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