Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Darius and Girėnas Stadium (Kaunas)

Referee: Muntean D. (Mda)


	Kauno Žalgiris		Valur

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.1	2.88	Watch
	2.25	3.2	2.9	Watch
	2.35	3.6	2.65	Watch
	2.38	3.57	2.67
	2.37	3.09	3.08	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.7
	2.37	3.25	3.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.13)	3.3 ↓ (3.48)	2.86 ↓ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kauno Žalgiris
39.5%

Draw
28.1%

Valur
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

26.8%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

27.7%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kauno Žalgiris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Valur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kauno Žalgiris than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kauno Žalgiris, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valur than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	13.3%	13.3%

Kauno Žalgiris - Valur Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Kauno Žalgiris will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Valur will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kauno Žalgiris: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Kauno Žalgiris (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Valur (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 4.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Kauno Žalgiris (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Kauno Žalgiris (votes: 3 - 75%). Valur (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
55. Svedkauskas T. (G) 21. Bah-Traore H. 3. Tolordava A. 23. Hernandez A. 37. Iyobosa Edokpolor N. 8. Armanavicius V. 10. Sirgedas G. (C) 9. Chogadze T. 7. Benchaib A. 70. Ourega F. 19. Jansonas R.	18. Schram F. (G) 20. Omarsson O. 15. Eyjolfsson H. (C) 6. Antonsson B. 11. Larusson S. 8. Jonsson J. 2. Magnusson T. 10. Sigurdsson K. 12. Haraldsson T. 14. Skoglund A. 9. Pedersen P.
Substitutes
28. Burdzilauskas E. 2. Burdzilauskas T. 11. Cernych F. 66. Jurjonas E. 5. Kerkez D. 20. Lekiatas R. 22. Mikelionis D. (G) 35. Miksiunas J. (G) 14. Naah D. 79. Paulauskas V. 6. Pavlovic D. 30. Vosylius N.	25. Agustsson S. (G) 17. Heimisson L. 33. Hoti A. 95. Johannesson S. (G) 7. Johannsson A. 97. Jonsson B. 19. Kjartansson O. 30. Kjeld M. 4. Nakkim M. 23. Palsson A. 21. Palsson J.
Coaches
Cerniauskas E.	Tufegdzic S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Antonsson B. 🟨,
44', Tolordava A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', 1 - 0, Jansonas R. ⚽, Benchaib A. (A),
61', Chogadze T. ↓, Cernych F. ↑,
73', Skoglund A. ↓, Heimisson L. ↑,
73', Pedersen P. ↓, Palsson A. ↑,
77', Jansonas R. ↓, Burdzilauskas T. ↑,
81', Magnusson T. 🟨,
81', Jonsson J. ↓, Kjartansson O. ↑,
81', Sigurdsson K. ↓, Johannsson A. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Haraldsson T. ⚽, Palsson A. (A),
88', Larusson S. ↓, Palsson J. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

In recent matches, both teams have secured multiple victories.

Valur may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
21.07.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Dainava Alytus	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
17.07.25	Pen-y-Bont - Kauno Žalgiris	1:1 ✺
10.07.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Pen-y-Bont	3:0 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
05.07.25	Riteriai - Kauno Žalgiris	1:5 ✺
30.06.25	Banga Gargždai - Kauno Žalgiris	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WTWWW
- Valur Reykjavik
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
20.07.25	Vikingur Reykjavik - Valur	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
17.07.25	Flora Tallinn - Valur	1:2 ✺
10.07.25	Valur - Flora Tallinn	3:0 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
05.07.25	Vestri - Valur	0:2 ✺
Icelandic Cup
01.07.25	Valur - Stjarnan	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWWWW

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